Le Havre vs Lorient preview
In the fixture between Le Havre and Lorient, the probabilities show Lorient at 38% to win, slightly ahead of Le Havre at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance, while both teams to score stands at 57%.
Le Havre's recent form is concerning, with 5 losses and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. In contrast, Lorient has shown better form, recording 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the same period. The expected goals are closely matched, with Le Havre at 1.45 and Lorient at 1.43, indicating a competitive match. However, Le Havre's struggles could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Why this pick: Le Havre vs Lorient
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Havre 10, Lorient 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Le Havre vs Lorient: model vs market
| Source | Le Havre | Draw | Lorient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Published | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.64, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Le Havre vs Lorient odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lorient, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 2.88 | 2.80 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.33 | +0.04 |
| Lorient | 2.45 | 2.54 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Le Havre and Lorient expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Le Havre / Lorient)
- 1.07 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Le Havre / Lorient)
- 1.26 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Le Havre vs Lorient score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Le Havre goals. Columns: Lorient goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Le Havre vs Lorient goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Le Havre vs Lorient
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Lorient | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Le Havre or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Lorient) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lorient win by 2+ | 15% | 6.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Le Havre and Lorient recent form
Le Havre
0W 1D 5L
Lorient
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Le Havre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lorient away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Le Havre at home only, Lorient away only.
Le Havre vs Lorient head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Le Havre 2 · draws 2 · Lorient 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Lorient | 0-2 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Le Havre | 1-1 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-28 | Lorient | 3-3 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Le Havre | 3-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Toulouse v Strasbourg — match page 2026-11-06
- Auxerre vs Paris FC 2026-11-07
- Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rennes vs Lille 2026-11-08
- Angers v Nice — match page 2026-11-08
- Brest vs Lyon — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Le Mans vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Lens vs Marseille 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Le Havre, previous: Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain analysis
- Lorient, previous: Lorient vs Brest prediction