Le Mans vs Monaco preview
In the Ligue 1 fixture between Le Mans and Monaco, the probabilities show Monaco at 52% to win compared to Le Mans at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. This suggests a competitive match, but the recent form of both teams indicates potential volatility; Le Mans has recorded L-D-L-L-W-D, while Monaco's form is L-D-W-L-W-D.
The expected goals are close, with Le Mans at 1.45 and Monaco at 1.58. Over 2.5 goals has a probability of 54%, and both teams to score is at 57%. The main reason this could deviate from predictions is the inconsistency in Le Mans' recent performances.
Why this pick: Le Mans vs Monaco
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Mans 9, Monaco 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Le Mans vs Monaco: model vs market
| Source | Le Mans | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Market | 23% | 24% | 54% |
| Published | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Le Mans vs Monaco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 4.25 | 4.25 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 4.05 | +0.02 |
| Monaco | 1.71 | 1.75 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Le Mans and Monaco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Le Mans / Monaco)
- 0.94 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Le Mans / Monaco)
- 1.15 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Le Mans vs Monaco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Le Mans goals. Columns: Monaco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Le Mans vs Monaco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Le Mans vs Monaco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Mans | 24% | 4.21 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Monaco | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Le Mans or draw) | 48% | 2.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Monaco) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win by 2+ | 21% | 4.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Le Mans and Monaco recent form
Le Mans
1W 2D 3L
Monaco
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Le Mans at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monaco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Le Mans at home only, Monaco away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Toulouse v Strasbourg — match page 2026-11-06
- Auxerre vs Paris FC 2026-11-07
- Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rennes vs Lille 2026-11-08
- Angers v Nice — match page 2026-11-08
- Brest vs Lyon — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Le Havre v Lorient — match page 2026-11-08
- Lens vs Marseille 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Le Mans, previous: Estac Troyes – Le Mans, 2026-10-31
- Monaco, previous: Monaco – FC Nordsjaelland, 2026-11-05