Arsenal vs Hull City preview
Arsenal faces Hull City with a 77% probability of winning, while Hull City sits at just 7%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Arsenal's expected goals are 1.94, indicating a strong attacking performance, while Hull City’s expected goals are only 0.73, reflecting their struggles in front of goal.
Despite Arsenal's dominant position, the match could be influenced by Hull City's recent form, which includes five games without a win. Additionally, the probability of both teams scoring is 46%, suggesting that while Arsenal is favored, Hull City could still find a way to impact the match.
Why this pick: Arsenal vs Hull City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Hull City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Arsenal vs Hull City: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal | Draw | Hull City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
| Market | 82% | 13% | 6% |
| Published | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arsenal vs Hull City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.21 | 1.15 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 7.75 | 7.90 | +0.15 |
| Hull City | 16.00 | 17.56 | +1.56 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arsenal and Hull City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Arsenal / Hull City)
- 1.16 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Arsenal / Hull City)
- 0.64 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal vs Hull City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Hull City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal vs Hull City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal vs Hull City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.68 | |
| Hull City | 7% | 14.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal or draw) | 93% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Hull City) | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 43% | 2.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Arsenal and Hull City recent form
Arsenal
4W 2D 0L
Hull City
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hull City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal at home only, Hull City away only.
Arsenal vs Hull City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal 8 · draws 2 · Hull City 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-02-11 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Hull City | Premier League |
| 2016-09-17 | Hull City | 1-4 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2016-03-08 | Hull City | 0-4 | Arsenal | FA Cup |
| 2016-02-20 | Arsenal | 0-0 | Hull City | FA Cup |
| 2015-05-04 | Hull City | 1-3 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2015-01-04 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Hull City | FA Cup |
| 2014-10-18 | Arsenal | 2-2 | Hull City | Premier League |
| 2014-05-17 | Arsenal | 3-2 | Hull City | FA Cup |
| 2014-04-20 | Hull City | 0-3 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2013-12-04 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Hull City | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Everton vs Coventry 2026-11-06
- Leeds v Tottenham — match page 2026-11-07
- Fulham v Newcastle United — match page 2026-11-07
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Brighton v Brentford — match page 2026-11-08
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ipswich vs Bournemouth 2026-11-08
- Sunderland vs Chelsea 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Arsenal, previous: Slavia Praha vs Arsenal: odds and pick
- Hull City, previous: Hull City – Ipswich, 2026-10-31