Brighton vs Brentford preview
Brighton faces Brentford with a 53% probability of winning, while Brentford sits at 24%. The expected goals for Brighton are 2.52 compared to Brentford's 1.42, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability.
Despite Brighton's strong position, recent form shows they have recorded two draws in their last four matches, which could impact their performance. Both teams to score has a 71% probability, suggesting that Brentford may find the net despite their lower expected goals. Brighton's recent head-to-head record also favors them, with 3 wins in the last 6 encounters against Brentford.
Why this pick: Brighton vs Brentford
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brighton 10, Brentford 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brighton vs Brentford: model vs market
| Source | Brighton | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Brighton below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Brighton vs Brentford odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1.70 | 1.91 | +0.21 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.85 | +0.25 |
| Brentford | 3.50 | 3.69 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brighton and Brentford expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (Brighton / Brentford)
- 1.35 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Brighton / Brentford)
- 0.96 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brighton vs Brentford score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brighton goals. Columns: Brentford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brighton vs Brentford goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brighton vs Brentford
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Brentford | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brighton or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Brentford) | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win by 2+ | 43% | 2.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brighton and Brentford recent form
Brighton
3W 2D 1L
Brentford
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brighton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Brentford away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brighton at home only, Brentford away only.
Brighton vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Brighton 3 · draws 2 · Brentford 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Brentford | 0-2 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2025-11-22 | Brighton | 2-1 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2025-04-19 | Brentford | 4-2 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2024-12-27 | Brighton | 0-0 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2024-04-03 | Brentford | 0-0 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2023-12-06 | Brighton | 2-1 | Brentford | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Leeds v Tottenham — match page 2026-11-07
- Fulham v Newcastle United — match page 2026-11-07
- Arsenal vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ipswich vs Bournemouth 2026-11-08
- Sunderland vs Chelsea 2026-11-08
- Manchester United vs Aston Villa 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Brighton, previous: Getafe vs Brighton prediction
- Brentford, previous: Brentford vs Nottingham Forest prediction