Fulham vs Newcastle United preview
In the upcoming fixture between Fulham and Newcastle United, Fulham has a 46% probability of winning compared to Newcastle's 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a 10% likelihood. Fulham's expected goals stand at 2.04, while Newcastle's is significantly lower at 1.16, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, Newcastle's recent form shows a mix of results, with three losses in their last six matches. Fulham's recent performance includes two wins in their last three games, but they also have a draw and a loss, suggesting inconsistency. This could impact the outcome, making it essential to consider both teams' current form when analyzing the match.
Why this pick: Fulham vs Newcastle United
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fulham 10, Newcastle United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Fulham vs Newcastle United: model vs market
| Source | Fulham | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.05.
- The market prices Fulham below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +14.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fulham vs Newcastle United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fulham, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 2.36 | 2.06 | -0.30 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.70 | -0.12 |
| Newcastle United | 3.02 | 3.40 | +0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fulham and Newcastle United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Fulham / Newcastle United)
- 1.17 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Fulham / Newcastle United)
- 0.99 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fulham vs Newcastle United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fulham goals. Columns: Newcastle United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fulham vs Newcastle United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fulham vs Newcastle United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fulham | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Newcastle United | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fulham or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Newcastle United) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fulham win by 2+ | 41% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fulham and Newcastle United recent form
Fulham
2W 2D 2L
Newcastle United
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fulham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newcastle United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fulham at home only, Newcastle United away only.
Fulham vs Newcastle United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fulham 3 · draws 0 · Newcastle United 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Fulham | 2-0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2025-12-17 | Newcastle United | 2-1 | Fulham | League Cup |
| 2025-10-25 | Newcastle United | 2-1 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2025-02-01 | Newcastle United | 1-2 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2024-09-21 | Fulham | 3-1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2024-04-06 | Fulham | 0-1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2024-01-27 | Fulham | 0-2 | Newcastle United | FA Cup |
| 2023-12-16 | Newcastle United | 3-0 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2023-01-15 | Newcastle United | 1-0 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2022-10-01 | Fulham | 1-4 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Everton vs Coventry 2026-11-06
- Leeds v Tottenham — match page 2026-11-07
- Arsenal vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Brighton v Brentford — match page 2026-11-08
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ipswich vs Bournemouth 2026-11-08
- Sunderland vs Chelsea 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Fulham, previous: Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction
- Newcastle United, previous: Newcastle United v Everton analysis