Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City preview
In the Premier League fixture between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City, the model assigns a 52% probability of a Manchester City win compared to 24% for Nottingham Forest. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 7% probability. The expected goals show Nottingham Forest at 1.90 and Manchester City at 2.17, indicating a potential for goals.
However, Nottingham Forest's recent form includes four losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are projected at 78%, suggesting a high-scoring game is likely. The head-to-head record also favors Manchester City, with 5 wins in the last 7 encounters.
Why this pick: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nottingham Forest 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: model vs market
| Source | Nottingham Forest | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 22% | 42% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 56% |
| Published | 24% | 23% | 52% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 4.33 | 4.52 | +0.19 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Manchester City | 1.70 | 1.71 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.08
- Attack rating (Nottingham Forest / Manchester City)
- 1.19 / 1.73
- Defence rating (Nottingham Forest / Manchester City)
- 1.03 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nottingham Forest goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nottingham Forest | 24% | 4.12 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Manchester City | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.29 |
| No | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nottingham Forest or draw) | 48% | 2.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Manchester City) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City recent form
Nottingham Forest
1W 1D 4L
Manchester City
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nottingham Forest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Manchester City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nottingham Forest at home only, Manchester City away only.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Nottingham Forest 1 · draws 1 · Manchester City 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Manchester City | 2-2 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2025-12-27 | Nottingham Forest | 1-2 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2025-04-27 | Nottingham Forest | 0-2 | Manchester City | England FA Cup |
| 2025-03-08 | Nottingham Forest | 1-0 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2024-12-04 | Manchester City | 3-0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2024-04-28 | Nottingham Forest | 0-2 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2023-09-23 | Manchester City | 2-0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Everton vs Coventry 2026-11-06
- Leeds v Tottenham — match page 2026-11-07
- Fulham v Newcastle United — match page 2026-11-07
- Arsenal vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Brighton v Brentford — match page 2026-11-08
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ipswich vs Bournemouth 2026-11-08
- Sunderland vs Chelsea 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Nottingham Forest, previous: Brentford vs Nottingham Forest prediction
- Manchester City, previous: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction