Slavia Praha vs Arsenal preview
In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Slavia Praha and Arsenal, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Arsenal at 63%, compared to Slavia Praha's 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with an 8% chance. However, the expected goals suggest Slavia Praha could score 1.32, which indicates they might be more competitive than the probabilities suggest.
Arsenal's recent form shows they are on a winning streak, with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Slavia Praha has only managed 2 wins in their last 6. The draw probability stands at 20%, and both teams to score is forecasted at 44%. This could lead to a tighter match than expected, particularly if Slavia Praha performs above their recent average.
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal: model vs market
| Source | Slavia Praha | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Market | 7% | 15% | 77% |
| Published | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Edge | +10% | +4% | -14% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -19.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Praha | 8.80 | 13.12 | +4.32 |
| Draw | 5.67 | 6.33 | +0.65 |
| Arsenal | 1.30 | 1.24 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Slavia Praha and Arsenal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Slavia Praha / Arsenal)
- 1.18 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Slavia Praha / Arsenal)
- 0.65 / 0.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Slavia Praha goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Slavia Praha vs Arsenal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Slavia Praha | 17% | 5.89 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.24 | |
| Arsenal | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Slavia Praha or draw) | 36% | 2.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Arsenal) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 8% | 12.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Slavia Praha and Arsenal recent form
Slavia Praha
2W 3D 1L
Arsenal
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Slavia Praha at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Arsenal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Slavia Praha at home only, Arsenal away only.
Injuries & availability
Slavia Praha absences
-
A. Ouanda
injury
- E. Pitak health problems
- H. Kante off the roster
-
I. Ogbu
achilles tendon injury
- I. Schranz illness
-
O. Kolar
off the roster
- S. Isife illness
- T. Chory coach's decision
Arsenal absences
-
B. Saka
thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Slavia Praha 0 · draws 1 · Arsenal 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | Slavia Praha | 0-3 | Arsenal | UEFA Champions League |
| 2021-04-15 | Slavia Praha | 0-4 | Arsenal | UEFA Europa League |
| 2021-04-08 | Arsenal | 1-1 | Slavia Praha | UEFA Europa League |
Other League Stage - 4 fixtures
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- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV 2026-11-04
- FC Porto v Napoli — match page 2026-11-04
- Viking vs Sabah FA 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Slavia Praha, previous: Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha, 2026-10-20
- Arsenal, previous: Liverpool – Arsenal, 2026-11-01
- Arsenal, next: Arsenal – Hull City, 2026-11-07