Leeds vs Tottenham preview
In the Premier League fixture between Leeds and Tottenham, the model gives Leeds a 38% chance of winning, while Tottenham sits at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Leeds, with a 9% probability. Both teams show a strong tendency to score, with 65% for both teams to score and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Leeds has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to Tottenham's 1.51. Recent form shows Leeds with 2 draws and 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Tottenham has 2 wins and 1 draw in the same span. The head-to-head record favors Tottenham with 1 win and 1 draw in the last 2 encounters. This context could shift expectations, particularly if either team improves their form.
Why this pick: Leeds vs Tottenham
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Leeds 10, Tottenham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Leeds vs Tottenham: model vs market
| Source | Leeds | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 37% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.69, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Leeds vs Tottenham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Leeds, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 2.15 | 2.60 | +0.46 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.30 | +0.20 |
| Tottenham | 2.70 | 2.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leeds and Tottenham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Leeds / Tottenham)
- 1.07 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Leeds / Tottenham)
- 1.17 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leeds vs Tottenham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leeds goals. Columns: Tottenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leeds vs Tottenham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leeds vs Tottenham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leeds | 37% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Tottenham | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leeds or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Tottenham) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leeds win by 2+ | 17% | 6.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Leeds and Tottenham recent form
Leeds
1W 3D 2L
Tottenham
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leeds at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Tottenham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leeds at home only, Tottenham away only.
Leeds vs Tottenham head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Leeds 2 · draws 1 · Tottenham 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Tottenham | 1-1 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2025-10-04 | Leeds | 1-2 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2023-05-28 | Leeds | 1-4 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2022-11-12 | Tottenham | 4-3 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2022-02-26 | Leeds | 0-4 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2021-11-21 | Tottenham | 2-1 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2021-05-08 | Leeds | 3-1 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2021-01-02 | Tottenham | 3-0 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2013-01-27 | Leeds | 2-1 | Tottenham | FA Cup |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Everton vs Coventry 2026-11-06
- Fulham v Newcastle United — match page 2026-11-07
- Arsenal vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Brighton v Brentford — match page 2026-11-08
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ipswich vs Bournemouth 2026-11-08
- Sunderland vs Chelsea 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Leeds, previous: Bournemouth v Leeds analysis
- Tottenham, previous: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: odds and pick