Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK preview
In the upcoming match between Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK, the model gives Austria Lustenau a 40% chance to win compared to Grazer AK's 35%. The expected goals suggest a strong attacking performance from Austria Lustenau at 2.68, while Grazer AK is projected at 1.59. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the model's high expectation for over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams to score at 75%.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Austria Lustenau has alternated results with a record of L-W-L-L-L-W, while Grazer AK has struggled, managing only 2 draws in their last 5 matches, resulting in an overall record of L-L-D-L-D-D. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected results despite the statistical edge for Austria Lustenau.
Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK: model vs market
| Source | Austria Lustenau | Draw | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Published | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Edge | +7% | -2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.59.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Austria Lustenau below our published probability: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +16.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Austria Lustenau, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Lustenau | 3.20 | 2.76 | -0.44 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.48 | -0.04 |
| Grazer AK | 2.07 | 2.38 | +0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.27
- Attack rating (Austria Lustenau / Grazer AK)
- 1.15 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Austria Lustenau / Grazer AK)
- 1.72 / 1.51
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Austria Lustenau goals. Columns: Grazer AK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austria Lustenau | 40% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Grazer AK | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Austria Lustenau or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Grazer AK) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Austria Lustenau win by 2+ | 41% | 2.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK recent form
Austria Lustenau
2W 0D 4L
Grazer AK
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Austria Lustenau at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grazer AK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Austria Lustenau at home only, Grazer AK away only.
Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Austria Lustenau 2 · draws 2 · Grazer AK 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Grazer AK | 2-1 | Austria Lustenau | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2021-11-26 | Grazer AK | 0-0 | Austria Lustenau | 2. Liga |
| 2021-07-25 | Austria Lustenau | 2-1 | Grazer AK | 2. Liga |
| 2021-05-12 | Grazer AK | 2-0 | Austria Lustenau | 2. Liga |
| 2020-12-11 | Austria Lustenau | 3-1 | Grazer AK | 2. Liga |
| 2020-06-06 | Grazer AK | 1-1 | Austria Lustenau | 2. Liga |
| 2019-08-18 | Austria Lustenau | 0-2 | Grazer AK | 2. Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Ried vs Lask Linz 2026-11-07
- TSV Hartberg v SCR Altach — match page 2026-11-08
- WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sturm Graz v Red Bull Salzburg — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Austria Lustenau, previous: Red Bull Salzburg v Austria Lustenau analysis
- Grazer AK, previous: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg: odds and pick