Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 11

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg

· Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz· Referee Isa Simsek

Full time0 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was TSV Hartberg to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Grazer AKDrawTSV Hartberg

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGrazer AKDrawTSV Hartberg
Model23%22%55%
Market37%28%34%
Published34%27%40%
Edge-4%-2%+5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.43.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices TSV Hartberg below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on TSV Hartberg, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-23.

Opened 3.69Now 2.71 -0.98
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Grazer AK1.892.50+0.61
Draw3.643.33-0.31
TSV Hartberg3.692.71-0.98

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Grazer AK
2.24TSV Hartberg
Total expected goals
3.68
Attack rating (Grazer AK / TSV Hartberg)
0.81 / 1.27
Defence rating (Grazer AK / TSV Hartberg)
1.39 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 4.9% 6.4% 4.8% 4.5% 1 2.8% 8.9% 9.1% 6.8% 6.5% 2 2.6% 5.8% 6.5% 4.9% 4.6% 3 1.2% 2.8% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 4+ 0.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1%

Rows: Grazer AK goals. Columns: TSV Hartberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Grazer AK34%2.95
Draw27%3.77
TSV Hartberg40%2.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.46
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.21
Double chance1X (Grazer AK or draw)60%1.66
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or TSV Hartberg)66%1.51
Handicap -1TSV Hartberg win by 2+35%2.89
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg recent form

Grazer AK 1W 3D 2L
TSV Hartberg 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Grazer AK at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

TSV Hartberg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Grazer AK at home only, TSV Hartberg away only.

Expected lineups

Grazer AK lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 23 C. Stanković
  2. 27 Y. Oberleitner
  3. 21 M. Sollbauer
  4. 72 Petar Markovic
  5. 37 T. Trummer
  6. 24 C. Cvetko
  7. 34 P. Michorl
  8. 28 Anderson
  9. 10 C. Lichtenberger
  10. 11 M. Große
  11. 25 A. Hofleitner

Bench: J. Meierhofer, D. Pines, L. Hermesh, A. Smits, T. Koch, D. Maderner, S. Mandey, L. Klassen, M. Gragger

TSV Hartberg lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 91 Á. Pécsi
  2. 6 Habib Coulibaly
  3. 14 P. Komposch
  4. 27 K. Schopp
  5. 10 O. Lukic
  6. 5 Y. Diarra
  7. 4 B. Markuš
  8. 16 M. Dalpiaz
  9. 7 A. Gattermayer
  10. 95 Nikolaus Feldhofer
  11. 22 M. Hoffman

Bench: L. Pazourek, A. Urrutia, J. Drew, J. Karner, L. Spendlhofer, Paul Bratschko, L. Marić, T. Kainz, A. Radulović

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Grazer AK 0 · draws 4 · TSV Hartberg 3.

Grazer AKDrawsTSV Hartberg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-21TSV Hartberg1-0Grazer AKAustria Bundesliga
2025-10-18Grazer AK0-0TSV HartbergAustria Bundesliga
2025-04-25TSV Hartberg1-1Grazer AKBundesliga
2025-04-22Grazer AK0-3TSV HartbergBundesliga
2024-12-08Grazer AK0-3TSV HartbergBundesliga
2024-08-31TSV Hartberg1-1Grazer AKBundesliga
2023-06-30TSV Hartberg0-0Grazer AKFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match