Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg preview
In the Austria Bundesliga fixture between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg, the probabilities indicate a 30% chance for Sturm Graz to win, a 24% chance for a draw, and a 46% chance for Red Bull Salzburg to secure victory. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% probability.
Sturm Graz's expected goals stand at 1.42, while Red Bull Salzburg's are higher at 2.10. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance for both teams to score. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as Sturm Graz has recorded two draws and a loss in their last three matches, while Red Bull Salzburg has won four of their last five.
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg: model vs market
| Source | Sturm Graz | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Published | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Red Bull Salzburg, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 3.14 | 2.92 | -0.22 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.92 | +0.12 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 2.02 | 2.09 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.52
- Attack rating (Sturm Graz / Red Bull Salzburg)
- 1.13 / 1.62
- Defence rating (Sturm Graz / Red Bull Salzburg)
- 1.01 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sturm Graz goals. Columns: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 30% | 3.32 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.26 | |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sturm Graz or draw) | 54% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Red Bull Salzburg) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg recent form
Sturm Graz
2W 2D 2L
Red Bull Salzburg
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sturm Graz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Red Bull Salzburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sturm Graz at home only, Red Bull Salzburg away only.
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sturm Graz 4 · draws 4 · Red Bull Salzburg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3-0 | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2026-05-03 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1-1 | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2026-03-20 | Sturm Graz | 1-1 | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-09 | Sturm Graz | 1-1 | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-09-20 | Red Bull Salzburg | 0-2 | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-05-09 | Sturm Graz | 4-2 | Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-13 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1-2 | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 2025-03-02 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3-1 | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-06 | Sturm Graz | 5-0 | Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-28 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2-2 | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
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Before and after this match
- Sturm Graz, previous: Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction
- Red Bull Salzburg, previous: Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg: odds and pick