Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 12

TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach

· Stadion Hartberg, Hartberg

TipsterGrid prediction TSV Hartberg to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TSV HartbergDrawSCR Altach
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.53.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — TSV Hartberg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
TSV Hartberg2.53 Draw3.60 SCR Altach2.75

Price as of

Expected return at 2.53: +0.6% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach preview

In the upcoming match between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach, the probabilities indicate TSV Hartberg at 40% to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The expected goals show TSV Hartberg at 1.89 and SCR Altach at 1.53, suggesting a competitive match, but Hartberg has a stronger recent form with 3 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Altach's 3 wins in their last 6.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. While both teams have a high probability of scoring, with 67% for both teams to score, the recent form of SCR Altach could lead to an unexpected outcome. The last three head-to-head matches favor Hartberg, with 1 win and 2 draws, but Altach will aim to improve their record.

TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTSV HartbergDrawSCR Altach
Model45%24%30%
Market38%27%35%
Published40%26%34%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.53.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach odds movement

Median bookmaker price on TSV Hartberg, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.47Now 2.45 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
TSV Hartberg2.472.45-0.02
Draw3.483.42-0.06
SCR Altach2.612.66+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.89TSV Hartberg
1.53SCR Altach
Total expected goals
3.42
Attack rating (TSV Hartberg / SCR Altach)
1.41 / 1.19
Defence rating (TSV Hartberg / SCR Altach)
1.00 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 2.0% 1.0% 1 5.2% 10.4% 7.2% 3.7% 2.0% 2 5.8% 8.9% 6.8% 3.5% 1.9% 3 3.7% 5.6% 4.3% 2.2% 1.2% 4+ 2.7% 4.1% 3.1% 1.6% 0.9%

Rows: TSV Hartberg goals. Columns: SCR Altach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2TSV Hartberg40%2.51
Draw26%3.79
SCR Altach34%2.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.98
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.48
No33%3.07
Double chance1X (TSV Hartberg or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or SCR Altach)60%1.66
Handicap -1TSV Hartberg win by 2+26%3.89
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach recent form

TSV Hartberg 3W 2D 1L
SCR Altach 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

TSV Hartberg at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.83
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

SCR Altach away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: TSV Hartberg at home only, SCR Altach away only.

TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: TSV Hartberg 1 · draws 2 · SCR Altach 0.

TSV HartbergDrawsSCR Altach
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-22SCR Altach1-2TSV HartbergAustria Bundesliga
2026-02-14TSV Hartberg0-0SCR AltachAustria Bundesliga
2025-10-25SCR Altach2-2TSV HartbergAustria Bundesliga

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot TSV Hartberg to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on TSV Hartberg
Our pick: TSV Hartberg to win 18+ Bet Now