Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 11

Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau

· Red Bull Arena, Salzburg· Referee Julian Weinberger

Full time5 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Red Bull Salzburg to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Red Bull SalzburgDrawAustria Lustenau

Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRed Bull SalzburgDrawAustria Lustenau
Model78%12%9%
Market81%12%7%
Published80%12%8%
Edge-1%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.46 vs 1.24.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Red Bull Salzburg, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-23.

Opened 1.18Now 1.17 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Red Bull Salzburg1.181.17-0.01
Draw6.857.70+0.85
Austria Lustenau12.1013.00+0.90

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.46Red Bull Salzburg
1.24Austria Lustenau
Total expected goals
4.70
Attack rating (Red Bull Salzburg / Austria Lustenau)
1.45 / 1.21
Defence rating (Red Bull Salzburg / Austria Lustenau)
0.80 / 1.55

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1 2.8% 4.3% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 2 5.4% 6.8% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 3 6.3% 7.8% 4.8% 2.0% 0.8% 4+ 13.2% 16.3% 10.1% 4.2% 1.7%

Rows: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Columns: Austria Lustenau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 85%
Over 3.5 69%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Red Bull Salzburg80%1.25
Draw12%8.14
Austria Lustenau8%12.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.585%1.18
Under 2.515%6.57
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.25
Double chance1X (Red Bull Salzburg or draw)92%1.08
12 (either side)88%1.14
X2 (draw or Austria Lustenau)20%5.00
Handicap -1Red Bull Salzburg win by 2+62%1.61
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau recent form

Red Bull Salzburg 3W 2D 1L
Austria Lustenau 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Red Bull Salzburg at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.20
Goals against / match
0.40
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Austria Lustenau away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Red Bull Salzburg at home only, Austria Lustenau away only.

Expected lineups

Red Bull Salzburg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 52 Christian Zawieschitzky
  2. 13 F. Krätzig
  3. 47 Valentin Zabransky
  4. 44 K. Boma
  5. 21 T. Drexler
  6. 15 B. Mazurek
  7. 32 A. Barry
  8. 11 Y. Vertessen
  9. 30 G. Diakité
  10. 20 E. Baidoo
  11. 9 H. Tabaković

Bench: C. Früchtl, S. Diabaté, U. Tohumcu, K. Konaté, S. Lainer, A. Camara, L. Morgalla, L. Traoré, A. Chase

Austria Lustenau lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 27 D. Schierl
  2. 3 Danilo Soares
  3. 29 N. Pertlwieser
  4. 31 M. Maak
  5. 7 F. Gmeiner
  6. 61 H. Ismailcebioglu
  7. 24 S. Diarra
  8. 23 P. Grabher
  9. 17 A. Gashi
  10. 11 D. Weixelbraun
  11. 9 L. Jastremski

Bench: D. Kacuri, Alieu Conateh, P. Benjamin, R. Voisine, L. Afrifa, Anilson, L. Ibertsberger, P. Böhm, A. Verinac

Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Red Bull Salzburg 6 · draws 0 · Austria Lustenau 0.

Red Bull SalzburgDrawsAustria Lustenau
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-02-24Red Bull Salzburg7-0Austria LustenauBundesliga
2023-09-30Austria Lustenau0-4Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
2023-02-11Red Bull Salzburg4-0Austria LustenauBundesliga
2022-08-27Austria Lustenau0-6Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
2020-05-29Red Bull Salzburg5-0Austria LustenauCup
2018-10-31Austria Lustenau0-1Red Bull SalzburgCup

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match