Sturm Graz vs Celje Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Sturm Graz vs Celje preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Sturm Graz and Celje, the model gives Sturm Graz a 57% chance to win, while Celje sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, predicted at a 9% probability. Sturm Graz has an expected goals figure of 1.55 compared to Celje's 1.14, indicating a stronger attacking performance.

However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Sturm Graz's recent form shows inconsistency with a record of D-L-D-W-W-L, while Celje has been more stable with W-D-D-D-L-W. This could affect the match dynamics, potentially leading to a different result than the model predicts.

Sturm Graz vs Celje: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sturm Graz	Draw	Celje
Model	46%	28%	27%
Market	61%	22%	17%
Published	57%	23%	20%
Edge	-4%	+1%	+2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.14.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Sturm Graz vs Celje odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sturm Graz, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.57Now 1.54 -0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Sturm Graz	1.57	1.54	-0.03
Draw	4.31	4.37	+0.05
Celje	5.00	5.52	+0.52

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sturm Graz and Celje expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Sturm Graz

1.14Celje

Total expected goals: 2.70
Attack rating (Sturm Graz / Celje): 1.16 / 0.92
Defence rating (Sturm Graz / Celje): 1.03 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sturm Graz vs Celje score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 6.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 1 9.3% 13.2% 6.8% 2.6% 1.0% 2 8.1% 9.3% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 3 4.2% 4.8% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 2.3% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Sturm Graz goals. Columns: Celje goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sturm Graz vs Celje goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sturm Graz vs Celje

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sturm Graz	57%	1.74
	Draw	23%	4.33
	Celje	20%	5.12
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.98
	Under 2.5	49%	2.02
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.82
	No	45%	2.22
Double chance	1X (Sturm Graz or draw)	80%	1.24
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Celje)	43%	2.34
Handicap -1	Sturm Graz win by 2+	24%	4.20
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—