Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg preview

Anderlecht faces Red Bull Salzburg with probabilities of 45% for a home win, 30% for an away win, and 25% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Anderlecht at 1.43 and Red Bull Salzburg at 1.60.

While Anderlecht has shown mixed recent form with a record of W-L-W-L-L-W, Red Bull Salzburg has performed better with W-W-D-W-L-D. The model indicates a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score, which adds potential for an exciting match. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.

Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Anderlecht	Draw	Red Bull Salzburg
Model	30%	25%	45%
Market	48%	25%	26%
Published	44%	25%	31%
Edge	-5%	0%	+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Anderlecht, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.90Now 1.96 +0.06

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Anderlecht	1.90	1.96	+0.06
Draw	3.80	3.75	-0.05
Red Bull Salzburg	3.70	3.60	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Anderlecht and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.45Anderlecht

1.79Red Bull Salzburg

Total expected goals: 3.24
Attack rating (Anderlecht / Red Bull Salzburg): 1.13 / 1.66
Defence rating (Anderlecht / Red Bull Salzburg): 0.90 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 6.0% 6.3% 3.8% 2.5% 1 4.6% 11.2% 9.1% 5.4% 3.7% 2 4.1% 7.4% 6.6% 3.9% 2.7% 3 2.0% 3.5% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3% 4+ 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Anderlecht goals. Columns: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Anderlecht	44%	2.28
	Draw	25%	3.97
	Red Bull Salzburg	31%	3.23
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.59
	Under 2.5	37%	2.69
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.54
	No	35%	2.84
Double chance	1X (Anderlecht or draw)	69%	1.45
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Red Bull Salzburg)	56%	1.78
Handicap -1	Anderlecht win by 2+	14%	7.01
	Push (exactly one goal)	16%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Anderlecht and Red Bull Salzburg recent form

Anderlecht 3W 0D 3L

Red Bull Salzburg 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Anderlecht at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-0-1
Win rate: 75%
Goals for / match: 2.50
Goals against / match: 1.25
Clean sheets: 1 of 4

They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Red Bull Salzburg away

Record (W-D-L): 2-2-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.75
Goals against / match: 1.25
Clean sheets: 2 of 4

They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Anderlecht at home only, Red Bull Salzburg away only.