Real Sociedad vs Lyon Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Real Sociedad vs Lyon preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Real Sociedad and Lyon, the model gives Real Sociedad a 51% chance of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The expected goals for Real Sociedad stand at 2.23, while Lyon's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.35.

However, Lyon's recent form shows a mix of results, including two wins in their last six matches. This inconsistency could lead to an unexpected outcome, despite the model favoring Real Sociedad. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are also high at 69% and 67%, respectively, indicating a potential for a dynamic match.

Why this pick: Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Sociedad 10, Lyon 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real SociedadLyon

1.77 xG per 90 1.68

1.65 npxG per 90 1.68

10.4 PPDA 15.7

8.0 Deep completions per 90 7.2

1.29 xPTS per 90 1.70

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Sociedad vs Lyon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Real Sociedad	Draw	Lyon
Model	48%	24%	28%
Market	53%	24%	23%
Published	52%	24%	24%
Edge	-1%	0%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.44.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Real Sociedad vs Lyon odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.94Now 1.79 -0.15

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Real Sociedad	1.94	1.79	-0.15
Draw	3.77	3.92	+0.15
Lyon	3.55	4.20	+0.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Sociedad and Lyon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.90Real Sociedad

1.44Lyon

Total expected goals: 3.34
Attack rating (Real Sociedad / Lyon): 1.36 / 1.11
Defence rating (Real Sociedad / Lyon): 1.09 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Sociedad vs Lyon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 1.8% 0.9% 1 5.8% 10.6% 7.0% 3.3% 1.7% 2 6.4% 9.2% 6.6% 3.2% 1.6% 3 4.1% 5.8% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0% 4+ 3.0% 4.3% 3.1% 1.5% 0.7%

Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Lyon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Sociedad vs Lyon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 65%

Over 3.5 43%

Both teams to score: 66%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Real Sociedad	52%	1.94
	Draw	24%	4.13
	Lyon	24%	4.15
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.54
	Under 2.5	35%	2.85
Both teams to score	Yes	66%	1.52
	No	34%	2.93
Double chance	1X (Real Sociedad or draw)	76%	1.32
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Lyon)	48%	2.07
Handicap -1	Real Sociedad win by 2+	27%	3.67
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—