Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland preview
Monaco faces FC Nordsjaelland with a 60% probability of winning compared to 18% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Monaco's expected goals stand at 1.71, while FC Nordsjaelland's is lower at 1.10.
However, FC Nordsjaelland's recent form shows they are on a six-match unbeaten run, with five draws and one win. This could challenge Monaco's dominance, despite their higher probabilities. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 53%, and both teams scoring sits at 56%, indicating potential for an open game.
Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland: model vs market
| Source | Monaco | Draw | FC Nordsjaelland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Published | 62% | 21% | 18% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 1.48 | 1.42 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.66 | 4.81 | +0.15 |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 5.75 | 6.20 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monaco and FC Nordsjaelland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Monaco / FC Nordsjaelland)
- 1.10 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Monaco / FC Nordsjaelland)
- 0.96 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monaco goals. Columns: FC Nordsjaelland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.84 | |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 18% | 5.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monaco or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Nordsjaelland) | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win by 2+ | 29% | 3.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Monaco and FC Nordsjaelland recent form
Monaco
2W 2D 2L
FC Nordsjaelland
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monaco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
FC Nordsjaelland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monaco at home only, FC Nordsjaelland away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- FC Copenhagen vs FC Iberia 1999 2026-11-05
- Twente vs Pafos 2026-11-05
- Getafe v Brighton — match page 2026-11-05
- FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris 2026-11-05
- Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2026-11-05
- St. Truiden vs Brann — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Riga vs FK Jablonec 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Monaco, previous: Paris FC vs Monaco: odds and pick
- Monaco, next: Le Mans vs Monaco: odds and pick
- FC Nordsjaelland, previous: FC Nordsjaelland v CSKA Sofia analysis