AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid preview
In the UEFA Champions League fixture between AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid, the probabilities indicate a strong likelihood for Real Madrid at 69%, compared to AEK Athens FC's 16%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 7% probability. However, AEK Athens FC's expected goals stand at 2.04, suggesting they could outperform expectations.
Real Madrid is in excellent form, winning their last 6 matches, while AEK Athens FC has struggled recently with 4 losses in their last 5 games. The model also predicts a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 74%. This could indicate a more competitive match than the probabilities suggest, particularly if AEK Athens FC can capitalize on their expected goal tally.
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid: model vs market
| Source | AEK Athens FC | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Market | 9% | 14% | 78% |
| Published | 17% | 16% | 67% |
| Edge | +8% | +2% | -11% |
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.27, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 8.00 | 11.20 | +3.20 |
| Draw | 5.82 | 7.10 | +1.28 |
| Real Madrid | 1.33 | 1.23 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.92
- Attack rating (AEK Athens FC / Real Madrid)
- 1.33 / 1.50
- Defence rating (AEK Athens FC / Real Madrid)
- 0.95 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AEK Athens FC goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 17% | 5.90 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.36 | |
| Real Madrid | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.34 |
| No | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AEK Athens FC or draw) | 33% | 3.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Madrid) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win by 2+ | 19% | 5.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid recent form
AEK Athens FC
2W 0D 4L
Real Madrid
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AEK Athens FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Real Madrid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: AEK Athens FC at home only, Real Madrid away only.
Expected lineups
AEK Athens FC lineup · 4-4-2
- 91 A. Brignoli
- 3 S. Pilios
- 44 Filipe Relvas
- 2 H. Moukoudi
- 12 L. Rota
- 11 A. Koita
- 6 K. Kairinen
- 16 K. Arriaga
- 14 L. Majer
- 9 L. Jović
- 8 M. Gaćinović
Bench: T. Strakosha, O. Zubkov, R. Marin, B. Varga, P. Mantalos, D. Vida, C. Lykogiannis, M. Vitális, Marios Balamotis, Zini
Real Madrid lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 T. Courtois
- 17 Marc Cucurella
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 3 Éder Militão
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 20 Bernardo Silva
- 7 Vinícius Júnior
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 10 Kylian Mbappé
Bench: D. Huijsen, F. Valverde, Endrick, T. Alexander-Arnold, A. Lunin, I. Konaté, Álvaro Fernández, Carlos Espí, Brahim Díaz, Sergio Mestre, Thiago Pitarch, Sergio Martínez
Other League Stage - 4 fixtures
- Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Lens vs Como 2026-11-04
- Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis — match page 2026-11-04
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV 2026-11-04
- FC Porto v Napoli — match page 2026-11-04
- Slavia Praha vs Arsenal — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Viking vs Sabah FA 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- AEK Athens FC, previous: Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC prediction
- Real Madrid, previous: Racing Santander vs Real Madrid prediction
- Real Madrid, next: Valencia v Real Madrid analysis