RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City preview
RasenBallsport Leipzig faces Manchester City with a 25% chance of winning compared to City's 55%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a 6% probability. The model also suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams scoring at 80%.
Leipzig's expected goals stand at 2.38, while City’s is slightly lower at 2.08. Recent form shows Leipzig with three wins in their last six matches, while City has two wins in their last six. The head-to-head record favors City, with 4 wins in the last 6 encounters. The confidence grade for this analysis is A, indicating strong predictive reliability.
Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City: model vs market
| Source | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 20% | 34% |
| Market | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| Published | 25% | 20% | 55% |
| Edge | +7% | 0% | -7% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 5.20 | 5.17 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.72 | 4.80 | +0.08 |
| Manchester City | 1.54 | 1.54 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Manchester City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.47
- Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Manchester City)
- 1.34 / 1.51
- Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Manchester City)
- 1.05 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 25% | 3.98 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.00 | |
| Manchester City | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw) | 45% | 2.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Manchester City) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win by 2+ | 19% | 5.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Manchester City recent form
RasenBallsport Leipzig
4W 0D 2L
Manchester City
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RasenBallsport Leipzig at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Manchester City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: RasenBallsport Leipzig at home only, Manchester City away only.
Injuries & availability
RasenBallsport Leipzig absences
-
A. Ouedraogo
shoulder injury
-
L. Zingerle
off the roster
- M. Finkgrafe thigh injury
-
M. Guiu
hamstring injury
Manchester City absences
-
A. Semenyo
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: RasenBallsport Leipzig 1 · draws 1 · Manchester City 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-28 | Manchester City | 3-2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
| 2023-10-04 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1-3 | Manchester City | UEFA Champions League |
| 2023-03-14 | Manchester City | 7-0 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
| 2023-02-22 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1-1 | Manchester City | UEFA Champions League |
| 2021-12-07 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2-1 | Manchester City | UEFA Champions League |
| 2021-09-15 | Manchester City | 6-3 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | UEFA Champions League |
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Before and after this match
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, previous: FC Schalke 04 v RasenBallsport Leipzig analysis
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, next: RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg analysis
- Manchester City, previous: Manchester City vs Brighton: odds and pick
- Manchester City, next: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: odds and pick