FC Porto vs Napoli Prediction 04.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

FC Porto vs Napoli preview

In the UEFA Champions League fixture between FC Porto and Napoli, the probabilities indicate a strong edge for FC Porto at 53%, compared to Napoli's 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% probability, supported by expected goals of 2.21 for FC Porto and 1.01 for Napoli.

However, the recent form of both teams presents a potential risk. FC Porto has a mixed record of W-W-L-L-W-W, while Napoli's recent performances show L-W-D-W-L-L. This inconsistency could impact the match outcome, despite Porto's statistical advantage. The model also suggests a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability for both teams to score.

FC Porto vs Napoli: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	FC Porto	Draw	Napoli
Model	64%	21%	15%
Market	52%	25%	22%
Published	55%	24%	21%
Edge	+3%	-1%	-2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.01.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices FC Porto below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

FC Porto vs Napoli odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Porto, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 2.16Now 1.83 -0.33

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
FC Porto	2.16	1.83	-0.33
Draw	3.52	3.79	+0.26
Napoli	3.14	4.30	+1.16

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Porto and Napoli expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.21FC Porto

1.01Napoli

Total expected goals: 3.21
Attack rating (FC Porto / Napoli): 1.18 / 1.18
Defence rating (FC Porto / Napoli): 0.65 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Porto vs Napoli score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 3.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1 8.0% 9.8% 4.5% 1.5% 0.5% 2 9.8% 9.9% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3 7.2% 7.2% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 6.6% 6.7% 3.4% 1.1% 0.4%

Rows: FC Porto goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Porto vs Napoli goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Porto vs Napoli

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	FC Porto	55%	1.81
	Draw	24%	4.11
	Napoli	21%	4.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.61
	Under 2.5	38%	2.65
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.74
	No	43%	2.35
Double chance	1X (FC Porto or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Napoli)	45%	2.23
Handicap -1	FC Porto win by 2+	41%	2.42
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—