Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool Prediction 04.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool preview

In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Fenerbahçe and Liverpool, the probabilities indicate a 23% chance for Fenerbahçe to win, a 20% chance for a draw, and a 57% chance for Liverpool to secure victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% probability. Liverpool's recent form shows a strong trend with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Fenerbahçe has only managed 2 wins in their last 6.

The expected goals suggest Fenerbahçe could score 1.87, while Liverpool is projected to net 1.40. A potential concern is Fenerbahçe's inconsistency, as they have lost 2 of their last 3 matches. However, both teams show a high probability of scoring, with 65% for both teams to score and 64% for over 2.5 goals.

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Fenerbahçe	Draw	Liverpool
Model	48%	24%	28%
Market	16%	19%	64%
Published	24%	20%	55%
Edge	+8%	+1%	-9%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.65Now 1.48 -0.16

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Fenerbahçe	4.71	5.80	+1.09
Draw	4.30	5.00	+0.70
Liverpool	1.65	1.48	-0.16

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fenerbahçe and Liverpool expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.87Fenerbahçe

1.40Liverpool

Total expected goals: 3.27
Attack rating (Fenerbahçe / Liverpool): 1.16 / 1.11
Defence rating (Fenerbahçe / Liverpool): 0.96 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 4.3% 3.7% 1.7% 0.8% 1 6.1% 10.9% 7.0% 3.2% 1.5% 2 6.6% 9.3% 6.5% 3.0% 1.4% 3 4.1% 5.8% 4.1% 1.9% 0.9% 4+ 3.0% 4.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: Fenerbahçe goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Fenerbahçe	24%	4.12
	Draw	20%	4.89
	Liverpool	55%	1.81
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.57
	Under 2.5	36%	2.74
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.54
	No	35%	2.84
Double chance	1X (Fenerbahçe or draw)	45%	2.23
	12 (either side)	80%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Liverpool)	76%	1.32
Handicap -1	Liverpool win by 2+	13%	7.82
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Fenerbahçe and Liverpool recent form

Fenerbahçe 2W 1D 3L

Liverpool 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fenerbahçe at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-3-0
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.40
Goals against / match: 0.80
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.