Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz: model vs market
| Source | Austria Vienna | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sturm Graz, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna | 3.30 | 3.25 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.47 | -0.13 |
| Sturm Graz | 2.02 | 2.11 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Austria Vienna / Sturm Graz)
- 1.21 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Austria Vienna / Sturm Graz)
- 0.97 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Austria Vienna goals. Columns: Sturm Graz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austria Vienna | 33% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Sturm Graz | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Austria Vienna or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Sturm Graz) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win by 2+ | 12% | 8.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz recent form
Austria Vienna
2W 2D 2L
Sturm Graz
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Austria Vienna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sturm Graz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Austria Vienna at home only, Sturm Graz away only.
Expected lineups
Austria Vienna lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 S. Şahin-Radlinger
- 3 I. Buhari
- 15 A. Dragović
- 46 J. Handl
- 40 Daniel Nnodim
- 6 Philipp Maybach
- 5 V. Müller
- 26 R. Ranftl
- 10 S. Saljic
- 30 M. Fischer
- 19 J. Eggestein
Bench: J. Feddersen, V. Markovic, K. Boateng, Lee Kang-Hee, Lee Tae-Seok, J. Hettwer, Matteo Schablas, F. Wustinger, M. Kos
Sturm Graz lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 53 D. Khudyakov
- 27 L. Balbo
- 30 P. Koller
- 2 J. Quarshie
- 23 A. Malic
- 4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 39 Luca Weinhandl
- 78 V. Matoshi
- 19 S. Seidl
- 43 Jacob Peter Hödl
- 14 O. Diakité
Bench: G. Haider, A. Kayombo, S. Włodarczyk, P. Petrović, A. Helac, B. Beganović, N. Geyrhofer, J. Halwachs
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Austria Vienna 5 · draws 3 · Sturm Graz 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Sturm Graz | 1-1 | Austria Vienna | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2026-03-15 | Austria Vienna | 2-5 | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-14 | Austria Vienna | 3-1 | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-09-14 | Sturm Graz | 0-1 | Austria Vienna | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-27 | Sturm Graz | 0-1 | Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-23 | Austria Vienna | 2-1 | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-07 | Sturm Graz | 2-2 | Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-01 | Sturm Graz | 0-2 | Austria Vienna | Cup |
| 2024-09-25 | Austria Vienna | 2-2 | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-02 | Sturm Graz | 2-0 | Austria Vienna | Cup |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- WSG Wattens vs Ried — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg 2026-10-10
- SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- TSV Hartberg v Austria Lustenau — match page 2026-10-11
- Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Austria Vienna, next: Ried v Austria Vienna analysis
- Sturm Graz, next: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction