TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau: model vs market
| Source | TSV Hartberg | Draw | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 22% | 36% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau odds movement
Median bookmaker price on TSV Hartberg, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSV Hartberg | 2.30 | 2.15 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.49 | +0.09 |
| Austria Lustenau | 2.88 | 3.20 | +0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.93
- Attack rating (TSV Hartberg / Austria Lustenau)
- 1.34 / 1.25
- Defence rating (TSV Hartberg / Austria Lustenau)
- 1.21 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: TSV Hartberg goals. Columns: Austria Lustenau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TSV Hartberg | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Austria Lustenau | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (TSV Hartberg or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Austria Lustenau) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | TSV Hartberg win by 2+ | 24% | 4.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau recent form
TSV Hartberg
3W 2D 1L
Austria Lustenau
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
TSV Hartberg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Austria Lustenau away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: TSV Hartberg at home only, Austria Lustenau away only.
Expected lineups
TSV Hartberg lineup · 5-3-2
- 91 Á. Pécsi
- 11 J. Drew
- 12 M. Pfeifer
- 14 P. Komposch
- 27 K. Schopp
- 16 M. Dalpiaz
- 5 Y. Diarra
- 4 B. Markuš
- 95 Nikolaus Feldhofer
- 7 A. Gattermayer
- 22 M. Hoffman
Bench: Habib Coulibaly, O. Lukic, J. Karner, L. Spendlhofer, L. Marić, T. Kainz, A. Radulović, C. Onuoha, D. Korherr
Austria Lustenau lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 27 D. Schierl
- 3 Danilo Soares
- 29 N. Pertlwieser
- 18 R. Voisine
- 7 F. Gmeiner
- 8 D. Kacuri
- 17 A. Gashi
- 24 S. Diarra
- 20 L. Afrifa
- 11 D. Weixelbraun
- 39 A. Verinac
Bench: L. Jastremski, Alieu Conateh, P. Benjamin, Anilson, P. Grabher, L. Ibertsberger, P. Böhm, M. Maak, H. Ismailcebioglu
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: TSV Hartberg 4 · draws 3 · Austria Lustenau 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-29 | Austria Lustenau | 0-3 | TSV Hartberg | Cup |
| 2023-10-29 | Austria Lustenau | 0-4 | TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-07-29 | TSV Hartberg | 2-2 | Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| 2023-06-02 | Austria Lustenau | 5-1 | TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-03-31 | TSV Hartberg | 0-1 | Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| 2022-11-05 | TSV Hartberg | 1-1 | Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga |
| 2022-08-14 | Austria Lustenau | 4-1 | TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| 2018-05-25 | TSV Hartberg | 2-0 | Austria Lustenau | 2. Liga |
| 2018-04-06 | Austria Lustenau | 0-4 | TSV Hartberg | 2. Liga |
| 2017-11-17 | TSV Hartberg | 0-0 | Austria Lustenau | 2. Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- WSG Wattens vs Ried — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg 2026-10-10
- Austria Vienna v Sturm Graz — match page 2026-10-10
- SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- TSV Hartberg, next: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg prediction
- Austria Lustenau, next: Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz: odds and pick