Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 8

Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg

· Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz· Referee Stefan Ebner

Full time0 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Red Bull Salzburg to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 2

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Grazer AKDrawRed Bull Salzburg

Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGrazer AKDrawRed Bull Salzburg
Model13%21%65%
Market18%21%61%
Published17%21%62%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Red Bull Salzburg, 45 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.40Now 1.53 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Grazer AK6.855.10-1.75
Draw4.504.40-0.10
Red Bull Salzburg1.401.53+0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.89Grazer AK
2.16Red Bull Salzburg
Total expected goals
3.05
Attack rating (Grazer AK / Red Bull Salzburg)
1.06 / 1.62
Defence rating (Grazer AK / Red Bull Salzburg)
1.07 / 0.56

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 9.3% 11.0% 7.9% 7.1% 1 3.3% 10.0% 9.8% 7.1% 6.3% 2 1.9% 4.1% 4.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Grazer AK goals. Columns: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Grazer AK17%5.88
Draw21%4.74
Red Bull Salzburg62%1.62
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.43
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.88
No47%2.13
Double chance1X (Grazer AK or draw)38%2.62
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Red Bull Salzburg)83%1.20
Handicap -1Red Bull Salzburg win by 2+43%2.35
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg recent form

Grazer AK 2W 2D 2L
Red Bull Salzburg 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Grazer AK at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

Red Bull Salzburg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Grazer AK at home only, Red Bull Salzburg away only.

Expected lineups

Grazer AK lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 23 C. Stanković
  2. 27 Y. Oberleitner
  3. 21 M. Sollbauer
  4. 82 B. Owusu
  5. 14 J. Italiano
  6. 32 L. Klassen
  7. 10 C. Lichtenberger
  8. 24 C. Cvetko
  9. 28 Anderson
  10. 25 A. Hofleitner
  11. 34 P. Michorl

Bench: J. Meierhofer, L. Vraa-Jensen, A. Smits, T. Koch, D. Maderner, M. Große, S. Mandey, T. Trummer, Petar Markovic

Red Bull Salzburg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 C. Früchtl
  2. 31 D. Schmid
  3. 21 T. Drexler
  4. 44 K. Boma
  5. 22 S. Lainer
  6. 13 F. Krätzig
  7. 32 A. Barry
  8. 11 Y. Vertessen
  9. 8 S. Kitano
  10. 35 J. Lindstrøm
  11. 19 K. Konaté

Bench: U. Tohumcu, H. Tabaković, B. Mazurek, E. Baidoo, G. Diakité, A. Camara, Nikola Šarčević, Valentin Zabransky

Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Grazer AK 1 · draws 2 · Red Bull Salzburg 3.

Grazer AKDrawsRed Bull Salzburg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-15Grazer AK1-1Red Bull SalzburgAustria Bundesliga
2025-08-09Red Bull Salzburg5-0Grazer AKAustria Bundesliga
2024-11-02Red Bull Salzburg0-0Grazer AKBundesliga
2024-08-02Grazer AK2-3Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
2023-02-04Red Bull Salzburg3-4Grazer AKFriendlies Clubs
2019-04-03Grazer AK0-6Red Bull SalzburgCup

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match