Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 9

Ried vs Austria Vienna

· Josko Arena, Reed· Referee Manuel Baumann

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Ried to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RiedDrawAustria Vienna

Ried vs Austria Vienna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRiedDrawAustria Vienna
Model53%22%24%
Market39%26%35%
Published43%25%33%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.43.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ried below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ried vs Austria Vienna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ried, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-10.

Opened 2.29Now 2.39 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ried2.292.39+0.10
Draw3.413.65+0.24
Austria Vienna2.882.65-0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ried and Austria Vienna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.14Ried
1.43Austria Vienna
Total expected goals
3.56
Attack rating (Ried / Austria Vienna)
1.37 / 1.08
Defence rating (Ried / Austria Vienna)
1.04 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ried vs Austria Vienna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 3.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 1 5.2% 9.5% 6.2% 2.9% 1.4% 2 6.5% 9.2% 6.6% 3.1% 1.5% 3 4.6% 6.6% 4.7% 2.2% 1.1% 4+ 4.0% 5.8% 4.1% 2.0% 1.0%

Rows: Ried goals. Columns: Austria Vienna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ried vs Austria Vienna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ried vs Austria Vienna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ried43%2.34
Draw25%4.03
Austria Vienna33%3.08
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.24
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.11
Double chance1X (Ried or draw)67%1.48
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Austria Vienna)57%1.74
Handicap -1Ried win by 2+32%3.09
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ried and Austria Vienna recent form

Ried 4W 1D 1L
Austria Vienna 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ried at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Austria Vienna away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 69% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ried at home only, Austria Vienna away only.

Expected lineups

Ried lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 A. Leitner
  2. 30 O. Steurer
  3. 18 F. Rossdorfer
  4. 28 S. Chukwudi
  5. 17 P. Pomer
  6. 22 S. Schwab
  7. 6 Y. Maart
  8. 8 M. Rasner
  9. 11 J. Rhodes
  10. 12 A. Bajić
  11. 47 Evan Eghosa Aisowieren

Bench: L. Malicsek, D. Radonjic, O. Sorg, N. Sissoko, J. Nasrawe, H. Hankič, J. Boguo, L. Capan, I. Kiese Thelin

Austria Vienna lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 S. Şahin-Radlinger
  2. 3 I. Buhari
  3. 40 Daniel Nnodim
  4. 46 J. Handl
  5. 17 Lee Tae-Seok
  6. 7 V. Markovic
  7. 5 V. Müller
  8. 26 R. Ranftl
  9. 10 S. Saljic
  10. 30 M. Fischer
  11. 19 J. Eggestein

Bench: Philipp Maybach, K. Boateng, Lee Kang-Hee, J. Hettwer, Matteo Schablas, F. Wustinger, D. Ewemade, V. Toifl, M. Kos

Ried vs Austria Vienna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ried 2 · draws 1 · Austria Vienna 7.

RiedDrawsAustria Vienna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-08Ried0-2Austria ViennaAustria Bundesliga
2025-09-20Austria Vienna3-2RiedAustria Bundesliga
2023-03-04Ried1-3Austria ViennaBundesliga
2022-09-18Austria Vienna3-0RiedBundesliga
2021-10-23Austria Vienna4-1RiedBundesliga
2021-07-25Ried2-1Austria ViennaBundesliga
2021-05-21Ried3-2Austria ViennaBundesliga
2021-04-20Austria Vienna2-2RiedBundesliga
2021-01-23Ried0-1Austria ViennaBundesliga
2020-09-20Austria Vienna2-1RiedBundesliga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match