Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz

· Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth· Referee Jerome Brisard

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Bournemouth to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BournemouthDrawSturm Graz

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBournemouthDrawSturm Graz
Model48%27%25%
Market81%12%7%
Published73%16%11%
Edge-8%+4%+5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.12.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.19Now 1.17 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bournemouth1.191.17-0.01
Draw7.008.00+1.00
Sturm Graz13.0014.60+1.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bournemouth and Sturm Graz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Bournemouth
1.12Sturm Graz
Total expected goals
2.73
Attack rating (Bournemouth / Sturm Graz)
1.31 / 1.02
Defence rating (Bournemouth / Sturm Graz)
0.95 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 6.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 1 9.3% 13.0% 6.6% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.4% 9.4% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 3 4.5% 5.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Bournemouth goals. Columns: Sturm Graz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bournemouth73%1.37
Draw16%6.36
Sturm Graz11%8.99
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.94
Under 2.549%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.82
No45%2.22
Double chance1X (Bournemouth or draw)89%1.13
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Sturm Graz)27%3.73
Handicap -1Bournemouth win by 2+25%3.96
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bournemouth and Sturm Graz recent form

Bournemouth 2W 2D 2L
Sturm Graz 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Bournemouth absences

  • A. Adli calf injury
  • A. Scott thigh injury
  • D. Jebbison off the roster
  • E. J. Kroupi foot injury
  • F. Forster off the roster
  • J. Araujo thigh injury
  • J. Kluivert muscle injury
  • J. Sanchez off the roster
  • M. Aarons off the roster
  • V. Milosavljevic injury

Sturm Graz absences

  • A. Kayombo inactive
  • A. Vallci injury
  • E. Soglo muscle injury
  • F. Rozga muscle injury
  • G. Mamageishvili injury
  • L. Grgic knee injury
  • N. Geyrhofer off the roster
  • N. Weiper injury
  • O. Kiteishvili calf injury
  • S. Jatta shoulder injury
  • S. Wlodarczyk off the roster

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bournemouth lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Đ. Petrović
  2. 6 J. Soler
  3. 18 B. Diakité
  4. 14 António Silva
  5. 15 A. Smith
  6. 11 B. Doak
  7. 12 T. Adams
  8. 4 L. Cook
  9. 16 M. Tavernier
  10. 9 Evanilson
  11. 30 Á. Rodríguez

Bench: A. Truffert, J. Hill, D. Brooks, R. Christie, J. Kluivert, M. Di Gregorio, A. Adli, A. Tóth, Rayan, M. Allan

Sturm Graz lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 53 D. Khudyakov
  2. 27 L. Balbo
  3. 21 P. Petrović
  4. 2 J. Quarshie
  5. 23 A. Malic
  6. 43 Jacob Peter Hödl
  7. 78 V. Matoshi
  8. 4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
  9. 28 J. Heil
  10. 26 B. Beganović
  11. 19 S. Seidl

Bench: A. Vallci, A. Kayombo, O. Diakité, A. Helac, M. Grgic, P. Koller, J. Petritsch, Jonas Peinhart, Luca Weinhandl, J. Halwachs, E. Lorenz

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match