Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

· Red Bull Arena, Salzburg· Referee Horatiu Fesnic

Full time0 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was Red Bull Salzburg to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Red Bull SalzburgDrawAC Milan

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRed Bull SalzburgDrawAC Milan
Model77%16%7%
Market26%25%49%
Published39%23%39%
Edge+13%-2%-11%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 0.62.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Red Bull Salzburg below our published probability: +12.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Red Bull Salzburg, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 3.95Now 3.69 -0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Red Bull Salzburg3.953.69-0.26
Draw3.883.78-0.10
AC Milan1.811.92+0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.47Red Bull Salzburg
0.62AC Milan
Total expected goals
3.09
Attack rating (Red Bull Salzburg / AC Milan)
1.50 / 1.10
Defence rating (Red Bull Salzburg / AC Milan)
0.49 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1 10.6% 7.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2 13.9% 8.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 3 11.5% 7.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 12.7% 7.9% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Red Bull Salzburg39%2.59
Draw23%4.38
AC Milan39%2.59
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.68
Under 2.540%2.48
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.33
No57%1.75
Double chance1X (Red Bull Salzburg or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or AC Milan)61%1.63
Handicap -1Red Bull Salzburg win by 2+56%1.80
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan recent form

Red Bull Salzburg 4W 2D 0L
AC Milan 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Red Bull Salzburg at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Red Bull Salzburg at home only, AC Milan away only.

Injuries & availability

Red Bull Salzburg absences

  • A. Chase off the roster
  • C. Zawieschitzky muscle injury
  • D. Redzic ankle injury
  • E. Aguilar muscle injury
  • F. Matijasevic off the roster
  • J. Moser off the roster
  • J. Omoregie achilles tendon injury
  • L. Morgalla illness
  • N. Veratschnig knee injury
  • T. Drexler illness

AC Milan absences

  • A. Saelemaekers ankle injury
  • M. Gabbia thigh injury
  • P. Terracciano inactive
  • S. Chukwueze inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Red Bull Salzburg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 52 Christian Zawieschitzky
  2. 31 D. Schmid
  3. 47 Valentin Zabransky
  4. 44 K. Boma
  5. 39 L. Morgalla
  6. 15 B. Mazurek
  7. 32 A. Barry
  8. 20 E. Baidoo
  9. 8 S. Kitano
  10. 35 J. Lindstrøm
  11. 9 H. Tabaković

Bench: C. Früchtl, J. Mellberg, U. Tohumcu, Y. Vertessen, F. Krätzig, T. Drexler, S. Lainer, D. Redzic, G. Diakité, A. Camara, Nikola Šarčević

AC Milan lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 16 M. Maignan
  2. 31 S. Pavlović
  3. 5 K. De Winter
  4. 23 F. Tomori
  5. 33 D. Bartesaghi
  6. 12 A. Rabiot
  7. 30 A. Jashari
  8. 20 O. Hutchinson
  9. 70 A. Cissè
  10. 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
  11. 73 F. Camarda

Bench: P. Estupiñán, Gonçalo Ramos, C. Pulišić, S. Bocoum, L. Modrić, S. Chukwueze, Diego Moreira, C. Comotto, Mario Gila, F. Terracciano, Y. Musah, L. Torriani

Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Red Bull Salzburg 0 · draws 1 · AC Milan 1.

Red Bull SalzburgDrawsAC Milan
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-11-02AC Milan4-0Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Champions League
2022-09-06Red Bull Salzburg1-1AC MilanUEFA Champions League

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match