Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 9

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK

· Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz· Referee Julian Weinberger

Full time6 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Sturm Graz to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sturm GrazDrawGrazer AK

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSturm GrazDrawGrazer AK
Model38%30%32%
Market52%25%23%
Published48%26%25%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sturm Graz, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-10.

Opened 1.67Now 1.81 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sturm Graz1.671.81+0.15
Draw3.803.72-0.08
Grazer AK4.754.09-0.66

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sturm Graz and Grazer AK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27Sturm Graz
1.13Grazer AK
Total expected goals
2.40
Attack rating (Sturm Graz / Grazer AK)
0.87 / 0.96
Defence rating (Sturm Graz / Grazer AK)
0.93 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 9.0% 5.8% 2.2% 0.8% 1 10.2% 14.3% 7.4% 2.8% 1.0% 2 7.3% 8.3% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6% 3 3.1% 3.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Sturm Graz goals. Columns: Grazer AK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sturm Graz48%2.07
Draw26%3.77
Grazer AK25%3.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.33
Under 2.557%1.75
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.00
No50%2.00
Double chance1X (Sturm Graz or draw)75%1.34
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Grazer AK)52%1.94
Handicap -1Sturm Graz win by 2+18%5.70
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sturm Graz and Grazer AK recent form

Sturm Graz 3W 1D 2L
Grazer AK 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sturm Graz at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Grazer AK away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
3.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sturm Graz at home only, Grazer AK away only.

Expected lineups

Sturm Graz lineup

  1. 23 A. Malic
  2. 53 D. Khudyakov
  3. 4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
  4. 28 J. Heil
  5. 2 J. Quarshie
  6. 27 L. Balbo
  7. 39 Luca Weinhandl
  8. 14 O. Diakité
  9. 30 P. Koller
  10. 19 S. Seidl
  11. 78 V. Matoshi

Bench: A. Vallci, A. Kayombo, S. Włodarczyk, P. Petrović, A. Helac, B. Beganović, N. Geyrhofer, J. Halwachs, Jacob Peter Hödl

Grazer AK lineup

  1. 25 A. Hofleitner
  2. 28 Anderson
  3. 82 B. Owusu
  4. 24 C. Cvetko
  5. 10 C. Lichtenberger
  6. 23 C. Stanković
  7. 14 J. Italiano
  8. 32 L. Klassen
  9. 21 M. Sollbauer
  10. 34 P. Michorl
  11. 27 Y. Oberleitner

Bench: L. Vraa-Jensen, T. Koch, D. Maderner, M. Große, S. Mandey, C. Nicht, T. Trummer, M. Gragger, Petar Markovic

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Sturm Graz 6 · draws 0 · Grazer AK 0.

Sturm GrazDrawsGrazer AK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-07Sturm Graz2-1Grazer AKAustria Bundesliga
2025-08-30Grazer AK0-3Sturm GrazAustria Bundesliga
2025-03-09Grazer AK1-2Sturm GrazBundesliga
2024-10-19Sturm Graz5-2Grazer AKBundesliga
2023-11-02Grazer AK2-3Sturm GrazCup
2022-10-19Grazer AK0-1Sturm GrazCup

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match