Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 9

Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg

· Allianz Stadion, Vienna· Referee Daniel Pfister

Full time3 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Rapid Vienna to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Rapid ViennaDrawTSV Hartberg

Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRapid ViennaDrawTSV Hartberg
Model76%13%11%
Market75%15%9%
Published75%15%10%
Edge0%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.58 vs 1.47.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rapid Vienna, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-10.

Opened 1.29Now 1.25 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Rapid Vienna1.291.25-0.04
Draw5.386.15+0.78
TSV Hartberg9.109.93+0.83

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.58Rapid Vienna
1.47TSV Hartberg
Total expected goals
5.06
Attack rating (Rapid Vienna / TSV Hartberg)
1.84 / 1.47
Defence rating (Rapid Vienna / TSV Hartberg)
0.79 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1 1.9% 3.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 2 4.1% 6.0% 4.4% 2.2% 1.1% 3 4.9% 7.2% 5.3% 2.6% 1.3% 4+ 11.0% 16.2% 12.0% 5.9% 3.0%

Rows: Rapid Vienna goals. Columns: TSV Hartberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 96%
Over 2.5 88%
Over 3.5 74%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Rapid Vienna75%1.33
Draw15%6.82
TSV Hartberg10%10.11
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.588%1.14
Under 2.512%8.34
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.05
Double chance1X (Rapid Vienna or draw)90%1.11
12 (either side)85%1.17
X2 (draw or TSV Hartberg)25%4.07
Handicap -1Rapid Vienna win by 2+60%1.67
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg recent form

Rapid Vienna 5W 0D 1L
TSV Hartberg 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Rapid Vienna at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.75
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

TSV Hartberg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Rapid Vienna at home only, TSV Hartberg away only.

Expected lineups

Rapid Vienna lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Hedl
  2. 38 J. Horn
  3. 6 S. Raux-Yao
  4. 55 N. Cvetković
  5. 77 B. Bolla
  6. 18 M. Seidl
  7. 30 N. Bajlicz
  8. 10 P. Dahl
  9. 8 T. Adamsen
  10. 22 Y. Demir
  11. 9 E. Kara

Bench: Eaden Roka, M. Tilio, Nikolaus Wurmbrand, K. Ahoussou, L. Schaub, P. Gartler, M. Haïdara, F. Demir, C. M'Buyi

TSV Hartberg lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 91 Á. Pécsi
  2. 12 M. Pfeifer
  3. 6 Habib Coulibaly
  4. 14 P. Komposch
  5. 27 K. Schopp
  6. 16 M. Dalpiaz
  7. 5 Y. Diarra
  8. 4 B. Markuš
  9. 95 Nikolaus Feldhofer
  10. 7 A. Gattermayer
  11. 22 M. Hoffman

Bench: L. Pazourek, M. Postl, O. Lukic, J. Drew, J. Karner, L. Spendlhofer, L. Marić, T. Kainz, A. Radulović

Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Rapid Vienna 3 · draws 2 · TSV Hartberg 5.

Rapid ViennaDrawsTSV Hartberg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-22Rapid Vienna0-2TSV HartbergAustria Bundesliga
2026-04-19TSV Hartberg2-2Rapid ViennaAustria Bundesliga
2026-02-07Rapid Vienna1-1TSV HartbergAustria Bundesliga
2025-08-31TSV Hartberg0-1Rapid ViennaAustria Bundesliga
2025-03-09TSV Hartberg2-1Rapid ViennaBundesliga
2024-10-20Rapid Vienna2-1TSV HartbergBundesliga
2024-05-19Rapid Vienna0-3TSV HartbergBundesliga
2024-03-31TSV Hartberg0-3Rapid ViennaBundesliga
2023-11-11TSV Hartberg1-0Rapid ViennaBundesliga
2023-08-13Rapid Vienna0-1TSV HartbergBundesliga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match