Blackburn vs West Ham preview
In the upcoming match between Blackburn and West Ham, our model gives West Ham a 57% probability of winning compared to Blackburn's 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an 8% chance of occurring. This suggests that West Ham is expected to capitalize on their higher expected goals of 2.42 versus Blackburn's 1.64.
However, Blackburn's recent form shows a mix of results with two wins in their last five matches, which could impact the outcome. Additionally, the model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 74%. These figures highlight the potential for an open game, despite the confidence grade being only C.
Blackburn vs West Ham: model vs market
| Source | Blackburn | Draw | West Ham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 58% |
| Published | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.64.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Blackburn vs West Ham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on West Ham, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 4.85 | 4.78 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.00 |
| West Ham | 1.62 | 1.62 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Blackburn and West Ham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (Blackburn / West Ham)
- 1.01 / 1.65
- Defence rating (Blackburn / West Ham)
- 1.20 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Blackburn vs West Ham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Blackburn goals. Columns: West Ham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Blackburn vs West Ham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Blackburn vs West Ham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackburn | 21% | 4.77 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 | |
| West Ham | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Blackburn or draw) | 43% | 2.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or West Ham) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Blackburn and West Ham recent form
Blackburn
3W 0D 3L
West Ham
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Blackburn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
West Ham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Blackburn at home only, West Ham away only.
Blackburn vs West Ham head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Blackburn 0 · draws 3 · West Ham 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-09 | West Ham | 2-2 | Blackburn | League Cup |
| 2016-02-21 | Blackburn | 1-5 | West Ham | FA Cup |
| 2011-05-07 | West Ham | 1-1 | Blackburn | Premier League |
| 2010-12-18 | Blackburn | 1-1 | West Ham | Premier League |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- QPR v Lincoln — match page 2026-11-07
- Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Blackburn, previous: Blackburn vs Stoke City prediction
- West Ham, previous: Cardiff v West Ham analysis