QPR vs Lincoln preview
In the upcoming fixture between QPR and Lincoln, the model gives QPR a 55% chance of winning, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. The expected goals for QPR stand at 2.30, while Lincoln's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.11. This suggests a strong offensive performance from QPR compared to Lincoln's struggles.
However, the recent form of both teams could impact the outcome. QPR's last five matches show a mixed record of D-L-W-L-W-D, while Lincoln has struggled, with L-L-W-D-L-L. This discrepancy in form may influence the match dynamics, making it a potential factor against the model's prediction.
QPR vs Lincoln: model vs market
| Source | QPR | Draw | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices QPR below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
QPR vs Lincoln odds movement
Median bookmaker price on QPR, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 1.81 | 1.76 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.75 | +0.03 |
| Lincoln | 4.04 | 4.20 | +0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
QPR and Lincoln expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (QPR / Lincoln)
- 1.17 / 0.88
- Defence rating (QPR / Lincoln)
- 1.04 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
QPR vs Lincoln score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: QPR goals. Columns: Lincoln goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
QPR vs Lincoln goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for QPR vs Lincoln
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 55% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Lincoln | 21% | 4.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (QPR or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Lincoln) | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | QPR win by 2+ | 41% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
QPR and Lincoln recent form
QPR
2W 2D 2L
Lincoln
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
QPR at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Lincoln away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: QPR at home only, Lincoln away only.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
- Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- QPR, previous: QPR v Burnley analysis
- Lincoln, previous: Watford – Lincoln, 2026-11-03