Updated

England Championship · Matchday 14

Blackburn vs Stoke City

· Ewood Park, Blackburn· Referee Andrew Kitchen

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Stoke City to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BlackburnDrawStoke City

Blackburn vs Stoke City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBlackburnDrawStoke City
Model28%27%45%
Market35%29%36%
Published34%28%38%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Stoke City below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Blackburn vs Stoke City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stoke City, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.88Now 2.62 -0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Blackburn2.402.64+0.24
Draw3.363.25-0.11
Stoke City2.882.62-0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Blackburn and Stoke City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Blackburn
1.57Stoke City
Total expected goals
2.76
Attack rating (Blackburn / Stoke City)
1.05 / 1.10
Defence rating (Blackburn / Stoke City)
1.17 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Blackburn vs Stoke City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 8.7% 7.8% 4.1% 2.3% 1 6.3% 13.0% 9.3% 4.9% 2.7% 2 4.5% 7.1% 5.5% 2.9% 1.6% 3 1.8% 2.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 4+ 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Blackburn goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Blackburn vs Stoke City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Blackburn vs Stoke City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Blackburn34%2.98
Draw28%3.52
Stoke City38%2.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.77
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (Blackburn or draw)62%1.61
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Stoke City)66%1.50
Handicap -1Stoke City win by 2+23%4.26
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Blackburn and Stoke City recent form

Blackburn 3W 1D 2L
Stoke City 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Blackburn at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-2
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.83
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.

Stoke City away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Blackburn at home only, Stoke City away only.

Injuries & availability

Blackburn absences

  • A. Forshaw hip injury
  • L. Miller achilles tendon injury
  • M. Litherland muscle injury
  • R. Morishita injury

Stoke City absences

  • A. Ampah knee injury
  • A. Cresswell knee injury
  • E. Bocat injury
  • E. Galbraith yellow cards
  • L. Cisse inactive
  • S. Gallagher injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Blackburn lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 B. Tóth
  2. 3 H. Pickering
  3. 15 S. McLoughlin
  4. 17 H. Carter
  5. 2 R. Alebiosu
  6. 31 Kristi Montgomery
  7. 8 Sam Morsy
  8. 21 O. Afolayan
  9. 10 T. Cantwell
  10. 11 J. Fevrier
  11. 9 A. Guðjohnsen

Bench: A. Pears, Yuri Ribeiro, A. Kargbo, D. De Neve, S. Wharton, Y. Ohashi, M. Baradji, Gady Beyuku, J. Garrett

Stoke City lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 V. Johansson
  2. 5 L. Graham
  3. 40 M. Talovierov
  4. 16 B. Wilmot
  5. 21 L. Bombino
  6. 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
  7. 7 J. McGlynn
  8. 2 B. Johnson
  9. 13 J. Devenny
  10. 9 R. Boženík
  11. 42 M. Manhoef

Bench: B. Pearson, S. Ingelsson, Bae Jun-Ho, G. Hirst, B. Lawal, T. Rigo, J. Tchamadeu, J. Griffiths, F. Anderson

Blackburn vs Stoke City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Blackburn 3 · draws 2 · Stoke City 5.

BlackburnDrawsStoke City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Stoke City1-1BlackburnEngland Championship
2025-10-04Blackburn1-1Stoke CityEngland Championship
2025-03-12Stoke City1-0BlackburnChampionship
2024-11-06Blackburn0-2Stoke CityChampionship
2024-02-10Blackburn3-1Stoke CityChampionship
2023-11-25Stoke City0-3BlackburnChampionship
2023-03-10Stoke City3-2BlackburnChampionship
2022-08-27Blackburn0-1Stoke CityChampionship
2022-04-18Blackburn0-1Stoke CityChampionship
2021-11-27Stoke City0-1BlackburnChampionship

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match