Birmingham vs Swansea preview
In the upcoming match between Birmingham and Swansea, the model gives Birmingham a 52% chance of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. Birmingham's expected goals stand at 2.09, significantly higher than Swansea's 1.04, indicating a potential advantage in offensive performance.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the prediction. While Birmingham has shown strong recent form with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, Swansea's recent results include 3 wins in their last 6, which could lead to an unexpected outcome. The model also indicates a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring, further complicating the forecast.
Birmingham vs Swansea: model vs market
| Source | Birmingham | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Birmingham below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Birmingham vs Swansea odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Birmingham, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.91 | 1.84 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.60 | +0.06 |
| Swansea | 3.80 | 4.04 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Birmingham and Swansea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Birmingham / Swansea)
- 1.39 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Birmingham / Swansea)
- 0.80 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Birmingham vs Swansea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Birmingham goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Birmingham vs Swansea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Birmingham vs Swansea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Swansea | 22% | 4.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Birmingham or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Swansea) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win by 2+ | 38% | 2.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Birmingham and Swansea recent form
Birmingham
5W 0D 1L
Swansea
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Birmingham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-0
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swansea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Birmingham at home only, Swansea away only.
Birmingham vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Birmingham 5 · draws 5 · Swansea 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Swansea | 0-1 | Birmingham | League Cup |
| 2026-01-17 | Swansea | 1-1 | Birmingham | England Championship |
| 2025-09-20 | Birmingham | 1-0 | Swansea | England Championship |
| 2024-01-13 | Birmingham | 2-2 | Swansea | Championship |
| 2023-08-05 | Swansea | 1-1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2023-02-04 | Swansea | 3-4 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2022-11-08 | Birmingham | 2-2 | Swansea | Championship |
| 2022-03-19 | Swansea | 0-0 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2021-10-23 | Birmingham | 2-1 | Swansea | Championship |
| 2021-04-02 | Birmingham | 1-0 | Swansea | Championship |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
- QPR v Lincoln — match page 2026-11-07
- Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Birmingham, previous: Birmingham v Millwall analysis
- Swansea, previous: Portsmouth vs Swansea prediction