Charlton vs Sheffield Utd preview
In the upcoming match between Charlton and Sheffield Utd, the probabilities indicate a 25% chance for Charlton to win, a 27% chance for a draw, and a 48% chance for Sheffield Utd to take the victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% probability. Sheffield Utd's expected goals stand at 1.77, compared to Charlton's 0.83, highlighting a significant attacking advantage for the visitors.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Charlton has struggled with four losses and two draws in their last six matches, while Sheffield Utd has secured four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. This disparity in form may challenge the model's expectations, especially considering Charlton's historical success against Sheffield Utd with 2 wins in their last 2 encounters.
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd: model vs market
| Source | Charlton | Draw | Sheffield Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 44% |
| Published | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sheffield Utd below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sheffield Utd, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 3.05 | 3.30 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.41 | 3.42 | +0.01 |
| Sheffield Utd | 2.22 | 2.10 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Charlton and Sheffield Utd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Charlton / Sheffield Utd)
- 0.62 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Charlton / Sheffield Utd)
- 1.30 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charlton goals. Columns: Sheffield Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charlton vs Sheffield Utd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlton | 25% | 3.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Sheffield Utd | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charlton or draw) | 52% | 1.92 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Sheffield Utd) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Utd win by 2+ | 34% | 2.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Charlton and Sheffield Utd recent form
Charlton
0W 2D 4L
Sheffield Utd
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charlton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sheffield Utd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Charlton at home only, Sheffield Utd away only.
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Charlton 4 · draws 1 · Sheffield Utd 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Charlton | 1-0 | Sheffield Utd | England Championship |
| 2025-09-20 | Sheffield Utd | 0-1 | Charlton | England Championship |
| 2017-03-18 | Sheffield Utd | 2-1 | Charlton | League One |
| 2016-11-26 | Charlton | 1-1 | Sheffield Utd | League One |
| 2014-03-09 | Sheffield Utd | 2-0 | Charlton | FA Cup |
| 2012-01-21 | Charlton | 1-0 | Sheffield Utd | League One |
| 2011-10-01 | Sheffield Utd | 0-2 | Charlton | League One |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
- QPR v Lincoln — match page 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Charlton, previous: Charlton vs Bolton: odds and pick
- Sheffield Utd, previous: Preston vs Sheffield Utd: odds and pick