Cardiff vs Burnley preview
In the Championship fixture between Cardiff and Burnley, Cardiff has a 43% probability of winning compared to Burnley's 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, which has a 10% likelihood. Cardiff's expected goals stand at 1.86, while Burnley’s is lower at 1.27, indicating a stronger attacking potential for Cardiff.
However, Cardiff's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Burnley, on the other hand, has drawn three of their last five games, reflecting a more stable but less effective form. This dynamic could lead to an unexpected result despite the statistical edge for Cardiff.
Cardiff vs Burnley: model vs market
| Source | Cardiff | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 43% | 25% | 31% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cardiff below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cardiff vs Burnley odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cardiff, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.27 | 2.27 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.64 | +0.00 |
| Burnley | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cardiff and Burnley expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Cardiff / Burnley)
- 1.10 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Cardiff / Burnley)
- 1.14 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cardiff vs Burnley score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cardiff goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cardiff vs Burnley goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cardiff vs Burnley
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 43% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Burnley | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cardiff or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Burnley) | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win by 2+ | 29% | 3.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cardiff and Burnley recent form
Cardiff
3W 1D 2L
Burnley
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cardiff at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burnley away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff at home only, Burnley away only.
Cardiff vs Burnley head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cardiff 1 · draws 4 · Burnley 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | Burnley | 1-2 | Cardiff | League Cup |
| 2025-03-04 | Cardiff | 1-2 | Burnley | Championship |
| 2024-08-17 | Burnley | 5-0 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 2023-05-08 | Burnley | 3-0 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 2022-10-01 | Cardiff | 1-1 | Burnley | Championship |
| 2019-04-13 | Burnley | 2-0 | Cardiff | Premier League |
| 2018-09-30 | Cardiff | 1-2 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2016-04-05 | Burnley | 0-0 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 2015-11-28 | Cardiff | 2-2 | Burnley | Championship |
| 2013-04-20 | Burnley | 1-1 | Cardiff | Championship |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
- QPR v Lincoln — match page 2026-11-07
- Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Cardiff, previous: Cardiff v West Ham analysis
- Burnley, previous: QPR v Burnley analysis