West Brom vs Millwall preview
In the Championship fixture between West Brom and Millwall, West Brom has a 48% chance of winning, while Millwall's chances sit at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% probability. West Brom's expected goals are 1.91, significantly higher than Millwall's 1.16, indicating a stronger offensive performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. West Brom has recorded a D-W-D-W-W-L streak, while Millwall has a mixed L-W-L-D-L-W record. Additionally, in their last two encounters, West Brom has not secured a win, with 1 draw and 1 loss against Millwall. This head-to-head record may suggest a potential for an upset.
West Brom vs Millwall: model vs market
| Source | West Brom | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
West Brom vs Millwall odds movement
Median bookmaker price on West Brom, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 2.05 | 2.01 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.59 | 3.61 | +0.02 |
| Millwall | 3.40 | 3.44 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
West Brom and Millwall expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.07
- Attack rating (West Brom / Millwall)
- 1.08 / 1.07
- Defence rating (West Brom / Millwall)
- 0.89 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
West Brom vs Millwall score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: West Brom goals. Columns: Millwall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
West Brom vs Millwall goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for West Brom vs Millwall
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 48% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Millwall | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (West Brom or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Millwall) | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win by 2+ | 32% | 3.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
West Brom and Millwall recent form
West Brom
3W 2D 1L
Millwall
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
West Brom at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millwall away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 2.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: West Brom at home only, Millwall away only.
West Brom vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: West Brom 0 · draws 7 · Millwall 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | West Brom | 0-0 | Millwall | England Championship |
| 2025-10-04 | Millwall | 3-0 | West Brom | England Championship |
| 2025-02-15 | Millwall | 1-1 | West Brom | Championship |
| 2024-10-05 | West Brom | 0-0 | Millwall | Championship |
| 2024-03-29 | Millwall | 1-1 | West Brom | Championship |
| 2023-09-23 | West Brom | 0-0 | Millwall | Championship |
| 2023-04-01 | West Brom | 0-0 | Millwall | Championship |
| 2022-10-22 | Millwall | 2-1 | West Brom | Championship |
| 2022-01-29 | Millwall | 2-0 | West Brom | Championship |
| 2021-09-11 | West Brom | 1-1 | Millwall | Championship |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
- QPR v Lincoln — match page 2026-11-07
- Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- West Brom, previous: West Brom – Southampton, 2026-11-03
- Millwall, previous: Birmingham v Millwall analysis