Updated

England Championship · Matchday 14

QPR vs Burnley

· Loftus Road, London· Referee Tom Reeves

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was QPR to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
QPRDrawBurnley

QPR vs Burnley: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceQPRDrawBurnley
Model56%23%21%
Market48%26%26%
Published50%25%25%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.24.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices QPR below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

QPR vs Burnley odds movement

Median bookmaker price on QPR, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.12Now 1.98 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
QPR2.121.98-0.15
Draw3.603.64+0.04
Burnley3.203.58+0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

QPR and Burnley expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.10QPR
1.24Burnley
Total expected goals
3.34
Attack rating (QPR / Burnley)
1.20 / 0.93
Defence rating (QPR / Burnley)
1.09 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

QPR vs Burnley score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 3.5% 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% 1 6.5% 10.2% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 2 7.8% 9.7% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 5.5% 6.8% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 4.7% 5.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6%

Rows: QPR goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

QPR vs Burnley goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for QPR vs Burnley

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2QPR50%2.00
Draw25%3.99
Burnley25%4.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.54
Under 2.535%2.84
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.72
Double chance1X (QPR or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Burnley)50%2.00
Handicap -1QPR win by 2+35%2.87
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

QPR and Burnley recent form

QPR 2W 2D 2L
Burnley 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

QPR at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.17
Goals against / match
0.83
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Burnley away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-4
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: QPR at home only, Burnley away only.

Injuries & availability

QPR absences

  • A. S. Mbengue knee injury
  • N. Madsen injury
  • R. Burrell inactive
  • T. Lamptey inactive

Burnley absences

  • A. Broja injury
  • B. Amos inactive
  • B. Humphreys muscle injury
  • H. Mejbri hamstring injury
  • J. Beyer hamstring injury
  • J. Bruun Larsen injury
  • M. Obafemi inactive
  • M. Tresor Ndayishimiye inactive
  • S. Sambo inactive
  • Z. Amdouni ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

QPR lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 P. Charles
  2. 19 D. Cirkin
  3. 5 R. Edwards
  4. 3 J. Dunne
  5. 2 K. Adamson
  6. 14 K. Saito
  7. 18 G. Kamara
  8. 40 J. Varane
  9. 20 H. Vale
  10. 11 P. Smyth
  11. 22 R. Kone

Bench: L. Morrison, K. Dembélé, I. Chair, B. Kemper, C. Ward, K. Poku, I. Alemayehu, Justin Patrick Nnamdi Obikwu, Rayan Jawad Kolli

Burnley lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 37 G. Coudert
  2. 23 Lucas Pires
  3. 44 Igor
  4. 18 H. Ekdal
  5. 2 K. Walker
  6. 5 R. Hatate
  7. 17 A. Hountondji
  8. 19 L. Ramazani
  9. 29 J. Laurent
  10. 10 M. Edwards
  11. 9 J. Vardy

Bench: M. Weiß, Max Alleyne, U. Raghouber, C. Roberts, A. Ahmedhodžić, A. Ramsey, O. Sonne, J. Cullen, J. Banel

QPR vs Burnley head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: QPR 2 · draws 3 · Burnley 5.

QPRDrawsBurnley
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-04-26QPR0-5BurnleyChampionship
2024-10-26Burnley0-0QPRChampionship
2023-04-22Burnley1-2QPRChampionship
2022-12-11QPR0-3BurnleyChampionship
2016-05-02Burnley1-0QPRChampionship
2015-12-12QPR0-0BurnleyChampionship
2015-01-10Burnley2-1QPRPremier League
2014-12-06QPR2-0BurnleyPremier League
2014-02-01QPR3-3BurnleyChampionship
2013-10-26Burnley2-0QPRChampionship

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match