Derby vs Bolton preview
In the upcoming fixture between Derby and Bolton, the probabilities indicate a close contest, with Derby at 36% and Bolton slightly ahead at 38%. The expected goals also reflect this, with Derby at 1.24 and Bolton at 1.88, suggesting Bolton may have the edge in offensive potential. However, Derby's strong historical performance against Bolton, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters, could skew the outcome.
While our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Bolton, the recent form presents a different picture. Derby's recent results show a struggle with 4 losses in their last 5 matches, while Bolton has had mixed results with 2 wins in their last 5. This inconsistency could impact the match dynamics significantly.
Derby vs Bolton: model vs market
| Source | Derby | Draw | Bolton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 25% | 52% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bolton below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Derby vs Bolton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bolton, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 2.21 | 2.35 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.55 | +0.02 |
| Bolton | 2.97 | 2.78 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Derby and Bolton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Derby / Bolton)
- 0.65 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Derby / Bolton)
- 1.52 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Derby vs Bolton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Derby goals. Columns: Bolton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Derby vs Bolton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Derby vs Bolton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 36% | 2.79 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Bolton | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Derby or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Bolton) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bolton win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Derby and Bolton recent form
Derby
0W 2D 4L
Bolton
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Derby at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Derby at home only, Bolton away only.
Injuries & availability
Derby absences
-
C. Forsyth
knee injury
- C. Taylor injury
-
D. Murkin
hamstring injury
-
E. Cashin
inactive
- J. Ward inactive
-
M. Clarke
calf injury
-
P. Agyemang
achilles tendon injury
- S. Langas injury
Bolton absences
- E. Erhahon thigh injury
- E. Toal inactive
- G. Bazunu inactive
- J. McAtee knee injury
- J. Nelson inactive
- R. Hardie hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Derby vs Bolton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Derby 6 · draws 2 · Bolton 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-16 | Derby | 1-0 | Bolton | League One |
| 2023-09-02 | Bolton | 2-1 | Derby | League One |
| 2023-01-21 | Derby | 2-1 | Bolton | League One |
| 2022-12-27 | Bolton | 0-0 | Derby | League One |
| 2019-04-13 | Derby | 4-0 | Bolton | Championship |
| 2018-09-29 | Bolton | 1-0 | Derby | Championship |
| 2018-04-07 | Derby | 3-0 | Bolton | Championship |
| 2017-08-19 | Bolton | 1-2 | Derby | Championship |
| 2016-04-09 | Derby | 4-1 | Bolton | Championship |
| 2015-08-08 | Bolton | 0-0 | Derby | Championship |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Portsmouth vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Derby, previous: Derby – Norwich, 2026-11-03
- Bolton, previous: Charlton vs Bolton: odds and pick