Portsmouth vs Stoke City preview
In the upcoming fixture between Portsmouth and Stoke City, the probabilities indicate Portsmouth at 39% to win, while Stoke City sits at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Portsmouth, with a 10% chance. However, the recent form of both teams shows Stoke City winning 4 of their last 6 matches, which could challenge Portsmouth's chances.
The expected goals for Portsmouth are 1.20, slightly higher than Stoke City's 1.15. Both teams to score has a probability of 49%, suggesting a competitive match. With a confidence grade of C, the model reflects uncertainty, highlighting that while Portsmouth has a slight edge, Stoke City's recent performance could lead to a different outcome.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City: model vs market
| Source | Portsmouth | Draw | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Portsmouth vs Stoke City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Portsmouth, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 2.42 | 2.36 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.20 | -0.05 |
| Stoke City | 2.88 | 3.06 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Portsmouth and Stoke City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.36
- Attack rating (Portsmouth / Stoke City)
- 1.04 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Portsmouth / Stoke City)
- 0.84 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portsmouth goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portsmouth vs Stoke City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Stoke City | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portsmouth or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Stoke City) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Portsmouth win by 2+ | 16% | 6.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Portsmouth and Stoke City recent form
Portsmouth
4W 2D 0L
Stoke City
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portsmouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stoke City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Portsmouth at home only, Stoke City away only.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Portsmouth 2 · draws 0 · Stoke City 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Stoke City | 1-3 | Portsmouth | England Championship |
| 2025-10-25 | Portsmouth | 0-1 | Stoke City | England Championship |
| 2025-01-22 | Portsmouth | 3-1 | Stoke City | Championship |
| 2024-10-02 | Stoke City | 6-1 | Portsmouth | Championship |
| 2014-08-27 | Stoke City | 3-0 | Portsmouth | League Cup |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Portsmouth, previous: Portsmouth vs Swansea prediction
- Stoke City, previous: Blackburn vs Stoke City prediction