Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers preview
Wrexham faces Wolverhampton Wanderers with a 30% probability of a Wrexham win compared to 43% for Wolverhampton. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at an 11% chance. Wrexham's expected goals stand at 1.02, while Wolverhampton's is higher at 1.50, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.
However, Wrexham's recent form shows a mixed bag with two losses, one win, one draw, and one win in their last five matches. In contrast, Wolverhampton has won three of their last five, although they also have two losses. This discrepancy in form could influence the match outcome, despite Wrexham's home advantage.
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Wrexham | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Published | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wolverhampton Wanderers, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 2.92 | 2.92 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.42 | +0.00 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.26 | 2.26 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wrexham and Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Wrexham / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
- 0.88 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Wrexham / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
- 1.10 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wrexham goals. Columns: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 30% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wrexham or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Wolverhampton Wanderers) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+ | 24% | 4.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Wrexham and Wolverhampton Wanderers recent form
Wrexham
2W 1D 3L
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wrexham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolverhampton Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wrexham at home only, Wolverhampton Wanderers away only.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Portsmouth vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Wrexham, previous: Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: odds and pick
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, previous: Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers prediction