Updated

England Championship · Matchday 14

Charlton vs Bolton

· The Valley, London· Referee Steve Martin

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Charlton to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CharltonDrawBolton

Charlton vs Bolton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCharltonDrawBolton
Model31%25%45%
Market41%27%32%
Published38%26%35%
Edge-3%-1%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Charlton vs Bolton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Charlton, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-29.

Opened 2.23Now 2.30 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Charlton2.232.30+0.07
Draw3.353.48+0.12
Bolton3.062.90-0.16

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Charlton and Bolton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.47Charlton
1.80Bolton
Total expected goals
3.27
Attack rating (Charlton / Bolton)
0.70 / 1.09
Defence rating (Charlton / Bolton)
1.36 / 1.44

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Charlton vs Bolton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 5.9% 6.2% 3.7% 2.5% 1 4.6% 11.1% 9.1% 5.4% 3.7% 2 4.1% 7.4% 6.6% 4.0% 2.7% 3 2.0% 3.6% 3.3% 2.0% 1.3% 4+ 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7%

Rows: Charlton goals. Columns: Bolton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Charlton vs Bolton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Charlton vs Bolton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Charlton38%2.62
Draw26%3.78
Bolton35%2.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.73
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.88
Double chance1X (Charlton or draw)65%1.55
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Bolton)62%1.62
Handicap -1Charlton win by 2+15%6.88
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Charlton and Bolton recent form

Charlton 0W 2D 4L
Bolton 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Charlton at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
0.83
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bolton away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Charlton at home only, Bolton away only.

Injuries & availability

Charlton absences

  • C. Sichenje knee injury
  • M. Godden muscle injury
  • R. Apter knee injury

Bolton absences

  • E. Erhahon thigh injury
  • J. McAtee knee injury
  • J. Nelson inactive
  • R. Hardie hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Charlton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 W. Mannion
  2. 17 A. Bell
  3. 12 Billy Dawson Koumetio
  4. 5 L. Jones
  5. 20 D. McNamara
  6. 8 H. Knibbs
  7. 6 C. Coventry
  8. 9 K. Ahearne-Grant
  9. 15 N. Chalobah
  10. 7 T. Campbell
  11. 23 C. Kelman

Bench: M. Leaburn, A. Okonkwo, S. Carey, I. Mesík, M. Alli, M. Godden, J. Rankin-Costello, O. Skipp, Tyler Bindon

Bolton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Bonham
  2. 25 M. Conway
  3. 14 A. Famewo
  4. 3 C. Forino-Joseph
  5. 27 Luca Stephenson
  6. 8 J. Sheehan
  7. 4 X. Simons
  8. 10 S. Dalby
  9. 17 A. Ito
  10. 16 S. Iling-Junior

Bench: L. Brunt, B. Davies, K. Dong, T. Bair, T. Gale, D. Watson, Ruben Rodrigues, Gaizka Larrazabal, D. Harrington

Charlton vs Bolton head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Charlton 3 · draws 2 · Bolton 5.

CharltonDrawsBolton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-01-21Bolton1-2CharltonLeague One
2024-08-24Charlton2-0BoltonLeague One
2024-02-17Bolton3-3CharltonLeague One
2023-10-28Charlton0-2BoltonLeague One
2023-01-28Charlton1-2BoltonLeague One
2022-09-03Bolton3-1CharltonLeague One
2022-02-08Bolton2-1CharltonLeague One
2021-09-28Charlton1-4BoltonLeague One
2017-01-28Bolton1-2CharltonLeague One
2016-08-27Charlton1-1BoltonLeague One

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match