Dundee Utd vs Motherwell preview
Dundee Utd faces Motherwell with a 49% probability of winning compared to Motherwell's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Dundee Utd's expected goals of 1.98 against Motherwell's 1.03. This suggests a solid attacking performance from Dundee Utd, but the confidence grade is only C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Motherwell's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, contrasting with Dundee Utd's more stable D-W-D-W-W-D record. Despite the statistical edge for Dundee Utd, the head-to-head history reveals that Motherwell has 7 wins in the last 10 encounters, which could challenge the predicted outcome.
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell: model vs market
| Source | Dundee Utd | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Dundee Utd below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dundee Utd, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd | 2.00 | 2.02 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.72 | -0.03 |
| Motherwell | 3.32 | 3.25 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dundee Utd and Motherwell expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Dundee Utd / Motherwell)
- 1.03 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Dundee Utd / Motherwell)
- 1.01 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dundee Utd goals. Columns: Motherwell goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dundee Utd vs Motherwell
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee Utd | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Motherwell | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dundee Utd or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Motherwell) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dundee Utd win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Dundee Utd and Motherwell recent form
Dundee Utd
3W 3D 0L
Motherwell
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dundee Utd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motherwell away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Dundee Utd at home only, Motherwell away only.
Dundee Utd vs Motherwell head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Dundee Utd 2 · draws 1 · Motherwell 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Motherwell | 3-0 | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-02-28 | Motherwell | 2-0 | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-13 | Dundee Utd | 0-0 | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-10-29 | Motherwell | 2-0 | Dundee Utd | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-02-22 | Dundee Utd | 1-0 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2024-12-14 | Motherwell | 4-3 | Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| 2024-10-30 | Dundee Utd | 1-2 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2024-09-20 | Motherwell | 2-1 | Dundee Utd | League Cup |
| 2023-05-28 | Motherwell | 3-2 | Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| 2023-04-15 | Motherwell | 1-2 | Dundee Utd | Premiership |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- ST Johnstone v Dundee — match page 2026-11-07
- Aberdeen vs Hibernian 2026-11-07
- ST Mirren vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk 2026-11-08
- Celtic v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Dundee Utd, previous: Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction
- Motherwell, previous: Motherwell v ST Mirren analysis