Celtic vs Kilmarnock preview
Celtic faces Kilmarnock with a 77% probability of winning, while Kilmarnock sits at just 9%. The expected goals highlight a significant disparity, with Celtic at 2.67 and Kilmarnock at 1.33. This suggests a strong offensive performance from Celtic, supporting the predicted scoreline of 2-1, which has a 9% likelihood according to our model.
However, recent form could complicate matters. Celtic's last five matches show a mix of results, including two losses, while Kilmarnock has only one win in their last five. Despite Celtic's dominance in head-to-head encounters, winning all five of the last matches, their inconsistent recent performance introduces uncertainty into the outcome.
Celtic vs Kilmarnock: model vs market
| Source | Celtic | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Published | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.19, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Celtic vs Kilmarnock odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celtic, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 1.14 | 1.15 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 7.20 | 7.75 | +0.55 |
| Kilmarnock | 15.00 | 13.00 | -2.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celtic and Kilmarnock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.99
- Attack rating (Celtic / Kilmarnock)
- 1.23 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Celtic / Kilmarnock)
- 1.12 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celtic vs Kilmarnock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celtic goals. Columns: Kilmarnock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celtic vs Kilmarnock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celtic vs Kilmarnock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celtic | 77% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.35 | |
| Kilmarnock | 9% | 10.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celtic or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or Kilmarnock) | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win by 2+ | 45% | 2.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Celtic and Kilmarnock recent form
Celtic
2W 1D 3L
Kilmarnock
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celtic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kilmarnock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Celtic at home only, Kilmarnock away only.
Celtic vs Kilmarnock head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Celtic 5 · draws 0 · Kilmarnock 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Kilmarnock | 1-5 | Celtic | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-02-15 | Kilmarnock | 2-3 | Celtic | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-11-09 | Celtic | 4-0 | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-09-14 | Kilmarnock | 1-2 | Celtic | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-01-18 | Celtic | 2-1 | Kilmarnock | Scotland FA Cup |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- ST Johnstone v Dundee — match page 2026-11-07
- Dundee Utd vs Motherwell — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Aberdeen vs Hibernian 2026-11-07
- ST Mirren vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Celtic, previous: Celtic vs Beşiktaş: odds and pick
- Kilmarnock, previous: Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone, 2026-10-31