Aberdeen vs Hibernian preview
Aberdeen faces Hibernian with a 41% probability of winning compared to Hibernian's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 13% chance of occurring. Aberdeen's expected goals stand at 1.46, while Hibernian's is significantly lower at 0.89. This suggests Aberdeen may dominate in terms of goal-scoring opportunities.
However, recent form could challenge this prediction. Aberdeen's last five matches show a mixed record of L-L-W-L-D-W, while Hibernian has struggled with D-L-L-L-D-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast. Both teams to score has a 47% probability, which adds another layer of unpredictability to the outcome.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian: model vs market
| Source | Aberdeen | Draw | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aberdeen below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aberdeen vs Hibernian odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aberdeen, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 2.40 | 2.41 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.40 | -0.12 |
| Hibernian | 2.70 | 2.71 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aberdeen and Hibernian expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.35
- Attack rating (Aberdeen / Hibernian)
- 0.90 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Aberdeen / Hibernian)
- 0.99 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aberdeen goals. Columns: Hibernian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aberdeen vs Hibernian
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Hibernian | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.15 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aberdeen or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Hibernian) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aberdeen win by 2+ | 25% | 3.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Aberdeen and Hibernian recent form
Aberdeen
2W 1D 3L
Hibernian
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aberdeen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
Hibernian away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aberdeen at home only, Hibernian away only.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aberdeen 3 · draws 3 · Hibernian 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Hibernian | 1-1 | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-04-11 | Aberdeen | 2-0 | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-30 | Hibernian | 2-0 | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-10-26 | Aberdeen | 1-2 | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-04-26 | Aberdeen | 1-0 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2025-02-01 | Hibernian | 2-0 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 2024-12-21 | Aberdeen | 1-3 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2024-11-26 | Hibernian | 3-3 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 2024-05-12 | Hibernian | 0-4 | Aberdeen | Premiership |
| 2024-02-17 | Aberdeen | 2-2 | Hibernian | Premiership |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- ST Johnstone v Dundee — match page 2026-11-07
- Dundee Utd vs Motherwell — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- ST Mirren vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk 2026-11-08
- Celtic v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Aberdeen, previous: Rangers vs Aberdeen: odds and pick
- Hibernian, previous: ST Mirren vs Hibernian: odds and pick