Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk preview
In the fixture between Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk, the model gives Heart Of Midlothian a 57% chance of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The expected goals are 1.59 for Heart Of Midlothian compared to 1.40 for Falkirk, indicating a slight edge for the home side in terms of offensive output.
However, Falkirk comes into this match with strong recent form, having won 3 of their last 4 matches. This could challenge the model's prediction, as their momentum may influence the outcome despite historical head-to-head results favoring Heart Of Midlothian, who have 7 wins in the last 10 encounters.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk: model vs market
| Source | Heart Of Midlothian | Draw | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Published | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heart Of Midlothian, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.35 | 4.50 | +0.15 |
| Falkirk | 5.80 | 5.50 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Heart Of Midlothian / Falkirk)
- 1.20 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Heart Of Midlothian / Falkirk)
- 1.15 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heart Of Midlothian goals. Columns: Falkirk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Falkirk | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heart Of Midlothian or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Falkirk) | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heart Of Midlothian win by 2+ | 21% | 4.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk recent form
Heart Of Midlothian
2W 2D 2L
Falkirk
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heart Of Midlothian at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkirk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian at home only, Falkirk away only.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Heart Of Midlothian 7 · draws 1 · Falkirk 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Falkirk | 2-1 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-05-13 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-02-21 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-17 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1-1 | Falkirk | Scotland FA Cup |
| 2025-12-13 | Falkirk | 0-2 | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-09-27 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3-0 | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership |
| 2024-08-17 | Falkirk | 2-0 | Heart Of Midlothian | League Cup |
| 2021-07-03 | Heart Of Midlothian | 4-0 | Falkirk | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-02-08 | Falkirk | 0-1 | Heart Of Midlothian | FA Cup |
| 2015-03-21 | Falkirk | 0-3 | Heart Of Midlothian | Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- ST Johnstone v Dundee — match page 2026-11-07
- Dundee Utd vs Motherwell — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Aberdeen vs Hibernian 2026-11-07
- ST Mirren vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Celtic v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Heart Of Midlothian, previous: FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction
- Falkirk, previous: Falkirk – Celtic, 2026-11-01