ST Johnstone vs Dundee preview
In the upcoming match between ST Johnstone and Dundee, the probabilities show ST Johnstone at 39% to win, while Dundee sits at 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an 8% chance. The expected goals indicate a slight edge for Dundee at 1.52 compared to ST Johnstone's 1.39.
However, ST Johnstone's recent form includes three draws in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Meanwhile, Dundee has shown more inconsistency with two wins and a loss in their last three games. Both teams to score has a 60% probability, suggesting a competitive encounter.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee: model vs market
| Source | ST Johnstone | Draw | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
ST Johnstone vs Dundee odds movement
Median bookmaker price on ST Johnstone, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 1.83 | 2.31 | +0.48 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.54 | -0.14 |
| Dundee | 4.00 | 2.80 | -1.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ST Johnstone and Dundee expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (ST Johnstone / Dundee)
- 0.94 / 1.19
- Defence rating (ST Johnstone / Dundee)
- 1.06 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ST Johnstone goals. Columns: Dundee goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ST Johnstone vs Dundee
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Johnstone | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 | |
| Dundee | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ST Johnstone or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Dundee) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Johnstone win by 2+ | 16% | 6.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
ST Johnstone and Dundee recent form
ST Johnstone
1W 4D 1L
Dundee
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ST Johnstone at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dundee away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: ST Johnstone at home only, Dundee away only.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: ST Johnstone 1 · draws 5 · Dundee 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Dundee | 1-1 | ST Johnstone | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-05-18 | ST Johnstone | 0-2 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 2025-03-01 | Dundee | 1-1 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2025-01-05 | ST Johnstone | 1-3 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 2024-10-26 | Dundee | 1-2 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2024-03-30 | ST Johnstone | 1-2 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 2024-02-11 | Dundee | 2-1 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2023-09-02 | ST Johnstone | 2-2 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 2022-04-23 | Dundee | 1-1 | ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2022-01-26 | ST Johnstone | 0-0 | Dundee | Premiership |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Dundee Utd vs Motherwell — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Aberdeen vs Hibernian 2026-11-07
- ST Mirren vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk 2026-11-08
- Celtic v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- ST Johnstone, previous: Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone, 2026-10-31
- Dundee, previous: Dundee – Kilmarnock, 2026-10-28