Motherwell vs ST Mirren: model vs market
| Source | Motherwell | Draw | ST Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 51% | 24% | 24% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Motherwell vs ST Mirren odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Motherwell, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.80 | 1.83 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.86 | +0.06 |
| ST Mirren | 3.80 | 3.91 | +0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Motherwell and ST Mirren expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Motherwell / ST Mirren)
- 0.87 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Motherwell / ST Mirren)
- 1.36 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Motherwell vs ST Mirren score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Motherwell goals. Columns: ST Mirren goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Motherwell vs ST Mirren goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Motherwell vs ST Mirren
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| ST Mirren | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Motherwell or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or ST Mirren) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Motherwell win by 2+ | 22% | 4.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Motherwell and ST Mirren recent form
Motherwell
0W 1D 5L
ST Mirren
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Motherwell at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
ST Mirren away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Motherwell at home only, ST Mirren away only.
Expected lineups
Motherwell lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 A. Paulsen
- 45 M. Emmanuel
- 5 M. Moormann
- 3 J. Girdwood-Reich
- 7 T. Sparrow
- 8 L. Fadinger
- 13 J. Kanga
- 71 J. Hodge
- 19 I. Said
- 18 Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
- 47 S. Palmer-Houlden
Bench: Jamie Knight-Lebel, J. McGhee, O. Priestman, C. Hendry, E. Björgólfsson, P. McGinn, R. Charles-Cook, M. Connelly, D. Levitt
ST Mirren lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Chapman
- 53 Henry Fieldson
- 13 A. Gogić
- 22 M. Fraser
- 47 C. Ramsay
- 8 R. Carr
- 48 P. Nsio
- 88 K. Phillips
- 30 F. Taylor
- 16 L. Thomas
- 9 Eseosa Sule
Bench: J. Richardson, D. John, L. Donnelly, Louis Jackson, Samu, J. Young, C. Mochrie, C. McEvoy
Motherwell vs ST Mirren head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Motherwell 4 · draws 5 · ST Mirren 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | ST Mirren | 3-3 | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-02-21 | ST Mirren | 0-5 | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-03 | Motherwell | 2-0 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-11-01 | Motherwell | 1-4 | ST Mirren | League Cup |
| 2025-08-09 | ST Mirren | 0-0 | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-03-15 | Motherwell | 2-2 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2024-12-07 | ST Mirren | 0-1 | Motherwell | Premiership |
| 2024-09-28 | Motherwell | 2-1 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2024-03-30 | Motherwell | 1-1 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2023-12-16 | ST Mirren | 0-0 | Motherwell | Premiership |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Rangers v Aberdeen — match page 2026-10-31
- Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Falkirk vs Celtic 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Motherwell, previous: ST Johnstone vs Motherwell: odds and pick
- Motherwell, next: Dundee Utd v Motherwell analysis
- ST Mirren, previous: ST Mirren vs Hibernian: odds and pick
- ST Mirren, next: ST Mirren vs Rangers: odds and pick