ST Mirren vs Rangers preview
In the upcoming match between ST Mirren and Rangers, the probabilities indicate a strong likelihood of a Rangers victory at 64%, compared to ST Mirren's 15%. The expected goals further support this, with Rangers at 1.66 and ST Mirren at 0.82. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Both teams have shown contrasting recent form, with ST Mirren recording 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Rangers have secured 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 fixtures. This disparity could influence the match outcome, despite the historical head-to-head record showing ST Mirren with 2 wins, 2 draws, and Rangers with 6 wins in the last 10 encounters.
ST Mirren vs Rangers: model vs market
| Source | ST Mirren | Draw | Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 27% | 56% |
| Market | 14% | 19% | 66% |
| Published | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
ST Mirren vs Rangers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rangers, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren | 8.60 | 6.50 | -2.10 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 4.80 | -0.70 |
| Rangers | 1.30 | 1.40 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ST Mirren and Rangers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (ST Mirren / Rangers)
- 0.73 / 1.21
- Defence rating (ST Mirren / Rangers)
- 1.14 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ST Mirren vs Rangers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ST Mirren goals. Columns: Rangers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ST Mirren vs Rangers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ST Mirren vs Rangers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 15% | 6.65 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Rangers | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.15 |
| No | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ST Mirren or draw) | 36% | 2.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Rangers) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rangers win by 2+ | 32% | 3.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
ST Mirren and Rangers recent form
ST Mirren
1W 1D 4L
Rangers
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ST Mirren at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rangers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: ST Mirren at home only, Rangers away only.
ST Mirren vs Rangers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: ST Mirren 2 · draws 2 · Rangers 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Rangers | 1-0 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-08-16 | Rangers | 5-1 | ST Mirren | League Cup |
| 2026-03-15 | ST Mirren | 0-1 | Rangers | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-12-30 | Rangers | 2-1 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-24 | ST Mirren | 1-1 | Rangers | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-04-26 | ST Mirren | 2-2 | Rangers | Premiership |
| 2025-02-22 | Rangers | 0-2 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2024-12-26 | ST Mirren | 2-1 | Rangers | Premiership |
| 2024-10-27 | Rangers | 2-1 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2024-04-28 | ST Mirren | 1-2 | Rangers | Premiership |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- ST Johnstone v Dundee — match page 2026-11-07
- Dundee Utd vs Motherwell — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Aberdeen vs Hibernian 2026-11-07
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk 2026-11-08
- Celtic v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- ST Mirren, previous: Motherwell v ST Mirren analysis
- Rangers, previous: Rangers vs Aberdeen: odds and pick