Updated

Switzerland Super League · Matchday 12

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893

· St. Jakob-Park, Basel

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Lugano to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC LuganoDrawFC Basel 1893

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC LuganoDrawFC Basel 1893
Model77%13%10%
Market60%21%19%
Published64%19%17%
Edge+4%-2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.26 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Lugano, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.57Now 1.56 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Lugano1.571.56-0.01
Draw4.504.50+0.00
FC Basel 18934.754.80+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.26FC Lugano
1.19FC Basel 1893
Total expected goals
4.45
Attack rating (FC Lugano / FC Basel 1893)
1.78 / 1.02
Defence rating (FC Lugano / FC Basel 1893)
0.74 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1 3.4% 5.0% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 2 6.2% 7.4% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7% 3 6.8% 8.0% 4.8% 1.9% 0.7% 4+ 12.5% 14.9% 8.9% 3.5% 1.3%

Rows: FC Lugano goals. Columns: FC Basel 1893 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 82%
Over 3.5 65%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Lugano64%1.56
Draw19%5.30
FC Basel 189317%5.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582%1.22
Under 2.518%5.64
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.48
No33%3.06
Double chance1X (FC Lugano or draw)83%1.20
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or FC Basel 1893)36%2.79
Handicap -1FC Lugano win by 2+60%1.68
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 recent form

FC Lugano 6W 0D 0L
FC Basel 1893 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Lugano at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-1-0
Win rate
83%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 10 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

FC Basel 1893 away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Lugano at home only, FC Basel 1893 away only.

Expected lineups

FC Lugano lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 16 D. von Ballmoos
  2. 3 H. Delcroix
  3. 17 L. Mai
  4. 6 A. Papadopoulos
  5. 8 A. Grgić
  6. 21 Y. Cimignani
  7. 27 Daniel Dos Santos
  8. 25 U. Bislimi
  9. 46 M. Zanotti
  10. 30 D. Moncada
  11. 91 K. Behrens

Bench: B. Karimov, D. Kelvin, E. Alioski, A. Ajeti, A. Kendouci, J. Bichsel, B. Castro, E. Pihlström, F. Gebhardt

FC Basel 1893 lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Omlin
  2. 29 M. Cissé
  3. 24 F. Daniliuc
  4. 55 A. Victory
  5. 22 C. Michelin
  6. 5 Metinho
  7. 4 B. Omeragić
  8. 7 P. Otele
  9. 8 L. Małachowski Thorell
  10. 10 X. Shaqiri
  11. 9 Ž. Celar

Bench: N. Vouilloz, K. Tsunemoto, A. Bačanin, A. Sow, C. Louis, K. Rüegg, G. Koloto, J. Harder, Renato Widmer D’Autilia

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Lugano 6 · draws 2 · FC Basel 1893 2.

FC LuganoDrawsFC Basel 1893
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-06FC Basel 18931-3FC LuganoSwitzerland Super League
2026-05-17FC Lugano4-0FC Basel 1893Switzerland Super League
2026-02-15FC Basel 18931-1FC LuganoSwitzerland Super League
2025-11-09FC Basel 18930-1FC LuganoSwitzerland Super League
2025-08-10FC Lugano3-1FC Basel 1893Switzerland Super League
2025-05-10FC Lugano2-5FC Basel 1893Super League
2025-04-06FC Basel 18932-0FC LuganoSuper League
2025-01-19FC Lugano2-2FC Basel 1893Super League
2024-07-27FC Basel 18931-2FC LuganoSuper League
2024-04-02FC Lugano2-0FC Basel 1893Super League

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match