Updated

Switzerland Super League · Matchday 12

FC Luzern vs FC Sion

· Swissporarena, Lucerne· Referee Alessandro Dudic

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Sion to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC LuzernDrawFC Sion

FC Luzern vs FC Sion: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC LuzernDrawFC Sion
Model33%23%44%
Market39%24%37%
Published37%24%39%
Edge-1%0%+2%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Luzern vs FC Sion odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Sion, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 2.31Now 2.50 +0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Luzern2.622.41-0.21
Draw3.903.86-0.04
FC Sion2.312.50+0.19

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Luzern and FC Sion expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68FC Luzern
1.94FC Sion
Total expected goals
3.62
Attack rating (FC Luzern / FC Sion)
1.02 / 1.21
Defence rating (FC Luzern / FC Sion)
1.03 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Luzern vs FC Sion score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 4.3% 5.1% 3.3% 2.5% 1 3.6% 9.6% 8.5% 5.5% 4.2% 2 3.8% 7.3% 7.1% 4.6% 3.5% 3 2.1% 4.1% 4.0% 2.6% 1.9% 4+ 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2%

Rows: FC Luzern goals. Columns: FC Sion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Luzern vs FC Sion goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Luzern vs FC Sion

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Luzern37%2.69
Draw24%4.17
FC Sion39%2.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.34
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.42
No29%3.39
Double chance1X (FC Luzern or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or FC Sion)63%1.59
Handicap -1FC Sion win by 2+25%4.04
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Luzern and FC Sion recent form

FC Luzern 2W 1D 3L
FC Sion 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Luzern at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Sion away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.40
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Luzern at home only, FC Sion away only.

Expected lineups

FC Luzern lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 K. Letica
  2. 22 R. Fernandes
  3. 46 B. Freimann
  4. 21 L. Lüthi
  5. 20 P. Dorn
  6. 29 Levin Winkler
  7. 80 Mio Zimmermann
  8. 14 A. Cigaņiks
  9. 11 M. Di Giusto
  10. 16 O. tshikomb
  11. 19 D. Mikołajewski

Bench: S. Simoni, A. Oehlers, A. Grbić, Lucas Ferreira, N. Toggenburger, T. Owusu, L. Villiger, D. Xhemalija

FC Sion lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 A. Racioppi
  2. 20 N. Hefti
  3. 17 J. Kronig
  4. 28 K. Hajrizi
  5. 14 N. Lavanchy
  6. 8 Baltazar Costa
  7. 88 A. Kabacalman
  8. 29 T. Berdayes
  9. 77 D. Rrudhani
  10. 7 I. Chouaref
  11. 13 Winsley Boteli Mokango

Bench: N. Sow, Marquinhos Cipriano, J. Lukembila, B. Kololli, F. Ruberto, F. Surdez, L. Chipperfield, R. Nivokazi, F. Sylla

FC Luzern vs FC Sion head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Luzern 4 · draws 3 · FC Sion 3.

FC LuzernDrawsFC Sion
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-02FC Sion3-0FC LuzernSwitzerland Super League
2026-02-07FC Sion0-0FC LuzernSwitzerland Super League
2026-01-24FC Sion1-1FC LuzernSwitzerland Super League
2025-10-04FC Luzern3-3FC SionSwitzerland Super League
2025-02-23FC Luzern2-1FC SionSuper League
2024-11-10FC Sion4-2FC LuzernSuper League
2024-08-03FC Luzern1-0FC SionSuper League
2024-03-22FC Luzern2-1FC SionFriendlies Clubs
2023-05-25FC Sion1-2FC LuzernSuper League
2023-04-02FC Luzern1-2FC SionSuper League

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match